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报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 16 Jul 2015

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 15 July 2015, with a focus on price movements, key industry developments, and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, India, and other regions. It highlights the performance of major oil and gas benchmarks, recent deals, and strategic moves by companies in the sector.

Main Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Down by 2.5% to USD57.05/b, with a 1-day change of -1.46 USD/b.
WTI Crude Oil: Down by 3.1% to USD51.41/b, with a 1-day change of -1.63 USD/b.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 2.2% to USD57.18/b, with a 1-day change of +1.23 USD/b.
China Daqing Spot: Up 2.6% to USD53.08/b, with a 1-day change of +1.35 USD/b.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Up 2.7% to USD2.92/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of +0.08 USD/MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Up 2.6% to USD7.70/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of +0.31 USD/MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down 1.7% to USD71.74/b, with a 1-day change of -1.26 USD/b.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 0.2% to USD69.56/b, with a 1-day change of +0.14 USD/b.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Up 0.8% to USD318.87/mt, with a 1-day change of +2.58 USD/mt.
Gold: Down 0.6% to USD1,149.45/Oz, with a 1-day change of -6.61 USD/Oz.
USD-CNY: Stable at 6.21.
DJI: Down 0.1% to 18,050.17.
S&P 500: Down 0.1% to 2,107.40.

Key Industry News

1. Chesapeake and Statoil Offer Marcellus Stake

Joint venture partners Chesapeake Energy and Statoil have hired Meagher Energy Advisors to sell non-operated assets in the Marcellus Shale.
The wells produce 10.5 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.
About 57% of the acreage is held by production.

2. Iran Oil Boost on Hold Until 2016

Global oil markets won't see the full impact of Iran's nuclear deal until 2016 due to ongoing sanctions and verification processes.
OPEC expects Iran to increase crude exports by 500,000 barrels per day once sanctions are lifted.

3. Murphy Oil Makes Moves in Vietnam

Murphy Oil has signed a cooperation agreement with PetroVietnam for oil and gas projects.
Block B gas will support a US$10 billion domestic gas-to-power project.
PetroVietnam has acquired Chevron's operating interest in Blocks B, 48/95, and 52/97, as well as a pipeline project.

4. BHP Takes $2bn Writedown on US Energy Assets

BHP Billiton will record a $2bn impairment charge due to the review of its US shale assets.
The majority of the $2.8bn before tax writedown relates to Hawkville gas assets and Petrohawk acquisition goodwill.
The writedown will be reported on August 25, 2015.

5. China Reduces Oil Product Export Quotas

China cut its third-quarter oil product export quotas by 40% compared to the second quarter.
The additional quota for the year was set at 3.4 million tonnes, down from 5.6 million tonnes in the second quarter and 9.75 million tonnes in the first quarter.

6. China's Crude Oil Imports Rise

China imported 29.49 million tonnes of crude oil in June 2015, a 27% increase from the previous year.
This increase puts China in a position to challenge the US as the largest crude oil importer.

Analyst Ratings and Valuation Insights

Malaysia Oil & Gas

Iran could add 200k-700k bpd of oil once sanctions are lifted.
Maybank KE recommends NEUTRAL, suggesting focus on production-business operators.
Preferred BUYs include Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, and KNM.

SapuraKencana Petroleum

Secured a USD273 million turnkey job from ONGC.
GSA negotiation is ongoing; a favorable deal could be a catalyst.
HOLD rating with MYR2.80 as target price.

Petronas Chemicals

Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR, in line with base assumptions.
Weaker MYR against USD could provide upside potential.
HOLD rating with target price raised to MYR6.60.

NewOcean Energy

Reiterated BUY rating.
Target price of HKD7.70 implies 105% upside.
Volume and margin are on track for FY15 projections, posing upside risk to earnings.

Valuation Table for Asia Oil & Gas

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price (15-Jul)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	10.10	16.80	58.2	123.8	14.7	9.1	4.4	3.4	6.3	0.9	2.4
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	62,500	92,000	5.4	1.2	12.0	11.0	6.1	5.5	26.1	2.9	5.0
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	21.42	24.00	11.1	6.1	23.4	23.2	14.1	13.7	16.7	3.8	3.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	8.20	11.25	1.7	0.5	18.7	11.1	8.3	7.3	4.4	0.8	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.30	5.00	0.1	0.1	5.0	4.1	7.0	5.6	12.9	0.6	3.0
PTT Global Chemical	PTTGC TB	Buy	69.3	87.00	9.1	26.2	11.2	9.8	7.3	6.7	11.6	1.2	4.0

Valuation Table for Oil-Service Companies

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price (15-Jul)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	1.09	1.60	1.7	4.1	15.4	13.4	8.8	8.3	6.2	0.9	0.0
Barakah Offshore	BARAKAH MK	Buy	0.92	1.15	0.2	0.5	11.3	8.1	5.2	3.7	18.1	1.6	0.0
Dialog	DLG MK	Buy	1.59	1.90	2.1	3.2	31.3	29.4	25.5	25.6	14.1	3.9	1.4
KNM	KNMG MK	Buy	0.59	1.00	0.3	4.5	8.4	7.1	6.5	5.3	5.1	0.4	0.0
SapuraKencana	SAKP MK	Hold	2.36	2.80	3.7	7.5	11.6	15.7	10.2	10.0	11.0	1.2	1.8
UMWOG MK	UMWOG MK	Sell	1.52	2.55	0.9	0.8	21.2	13.5	12.5	9.6	4.7	1.0	0.0

Key Takeaways

Oil prices have seen declines in Brent and WTI, but some LNG and fuel prices are up.
China is making strides in crude oil imports, aiming to overtake the US.
Iran is expected to boost oil exports in 2016, but not immediately.
BHP is taking a significant impairment charge on US assets, signaling strategic shifts.
Murphy Oil and PetroVietnam are making strategic investments in Vietnam.
Analyst recommendations vary by region and company, with some BUY and HOLD ratings.
Valuation metrics like PER, EV/EBITDA, and ROE are used to evaluate companies, with CNOOC LTD and PetroVietnam Gas showing positive outlooks.