20250122-国金证券-新东方-S-09901.HK-收入增速超指引_教育业务利润提升_4页_889kb

报告摘要

总结

新东方公司发布FY2Q25未经审核业绩，实现收入1039亿美元，同比增长194%；归母净利润36亿美元，同比增长-29%；经调整归母净利润36亿美元，同比增长-29%。

收入端超指引，主要受益于教育新业务增长。教育业务（不包含东方甄选及直播电商业务）实现收入894亿美元，同比增长313%，其中出国考试培训、出国咨询和成人大学生国内考试培训业务分别同比增长211%、310%和349%。新东方学习机业务增长426%，给整体带来新的业务增长点。FY3Q25教育业务营收指引为101~103亿美元，预计同比增长20~23%。

在利润率方面，公司毛利率为52%，同比提升6个百分点，费用控制良好。教育业务经营利润率提升至28%，同比提升10个百分点，Non-GAAP经营利润率达32%，维持稳定。

盈利预测方面，预计FY25~27 Non-GAAP归母净利将实现49、67、85亿美元，同比增长3475%、3596%、2721%。当前股价对应PE分别为202、148、117倍，考虑到新业务增长强劲及文旅业务潜力，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示包括招生增长和学费提价不及预期，以及教育行业政策变动等风险。

主要财务指标显示，公司营业收入保持高速增长，非母净利润扭亏为盈。增长率、利润率、现金流、资产周转等各项指标均呈现积极趋势。

双语翻译

English Translation

Company Performance Highlights

For their FY2Q25 Q2 unaudited financial results, the company reported an overall revenue of $103.9 billion, up 194%, achieving an EBIT profit of $3.2 billion, and an Adjusted EBIT profit of $3.6 billion.

Performance highlights include:

Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations: Total company revenue reached $103.9 billion, up 194%, with education business revenue (excluding Douyin Live Commerce segment) at $89.4 billion, up 313% from previous expectations of $85.1 to $87.2 billion.
Outlook for Q3 FY25: The projected education segment revenue for FY25 Q3 is $10.1 to $10.3 billion, a rise of 20% to 23%. Learning machine paid users increased by over 40%, reaching 2.61 million users. Non-academic tutoring is expanding rapidly across 60 cities, with a class registration increase of 265%.
Financial Health: The company's gross margin reached 52%, up 6 percentage points, with controlled SG&A expenses. Adjusted operating margin stood at 28%, up 10 points, reaching 32% in Non-GAAP metrics.

Financial Forecast and Valuation

We forecasted Non-GAAP net profit margins of $4.9 billion, $6.7 billion, and $8.5 billion for FY25 to FY27, growing 3475%, 3596%, and 2721%. Current valuation stands at PE ratios of 202x, 148x, and 117x. As the company maintains strong education business momentum and anticipates growth from tourism initiatives, our rating remains "Buy."

Risks

Key risks involve slower-than-expected new student enrollments and tuition hikes, alongside potential policy shifts within the education sector.

Financial Snapshot

我们的财务指标显示公司呈健康发展态势，各项关键数据均达到或超过了市场预期。尤其值得关注的是，公司收入持续增长，盈利能力提升，负债率保持稳定，展现了良好的经营效率和抗风险能力。未来，公司将继续加码非学科辅导等教育新兴领域，探索“文旅+教育”新业务增长点为战略，优化产品结构与商业模式，以实现长期可持续增长。面对复杂多变的外部环境，建议投资者保持战略定力，密切关注公司跨国业务布局能力与新兴业务培育进度。

Please refer to the latest disclosure on page 4 for more details.

展开完整摘要