2025-06-15-Jefferies-5月交通流量_9页_432kb

ADP Equity Research Summary

Key Findings

Traffic & Performance

• Paris Traffic YoY +3.3%, slightly exceeding capacity growth (+2.7%). Traffic stood at 101.8% of 2019 levels in May, with seat capacity tracking +2.9% for June, suggesting a Q2 traffic growth of +4.1% (vs consensus +3.2%).
• North America Traffic grew +4.7% YoY, while Asia-Pacific Traffic reached 92.1% of 2019 levels.
• GMR/TAV results were mixed, with GMR at 123.5% and TAV at 117.4% of 2019 levels, both exceeding expectations.

Valuation

• Current Price: €107.80, Target Price: €131.00 (+22% upside).
• Strong Buy recommendation driven by superior traffic recovery in Europe.
• The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts basis, reflecting the diversified nature of ADP's operations.

Analyst Certification

• Graham Hunt, Priyal Woolf, Glynis Johnson, Laura Ojeil, Gonzalo Riera-Ripoll, and Prateek Kumar certify the views in the report align with their independent analysis.

Risks

• Economic Factors: Changes in the economic environment could impact passenger demand.
• Regulatory Constraints: Rising interest rates and regulatory restrictions may limit returns.
• Capacity Growth vs. Traffic: While traffic growth slightly outpaced capacity in May, sustained mismatches could strain profitability.

Company Description

• Aeroports de Paris (ADP) manages Paris Charles de Gaulle, Orly, and Le Bourget airports, and holds international investments in airport infrastructure.

Investment Recommendation

• Strong Buy with a 12-month price target of €131.00.
• The stock is expected to deliver a total return of 15–20% based primarily on price appreciation, reflecting strong traffic growth in the European region.