2025-06-16-Jefferies-奥克兰机场（AIA）_2025年5月客流量稳固_运力前景严峻_9页_218kb

报告摘要

Auckland Airport Equity Research Summary

Rating: Hold, with a price target of NZD 8.26/share (+4% from current price).
Performance:
- Overall passenger volumes in May 2025 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding FYTD growth (+1.1%).
- International passenger volumes rose by 4.3%, reaching 92.6% pre-COVID recovery (highest in 12 months).
- Domestic growth (+1.1%) lagged, with passenger volumes slightly below pre-COVID levels at 86.7%.
Capacity Constraints: International capacity for 1H26 is projected at 88.5% pre-COVID levels, potentially limiting future growth.

Challenges remain due to capacity constraints and slower-than-expected recovery.
Opportunities include strong VFR traffic (Chinese tourists returning) and new flight routes (e.g., Adelaide-Auckland).
Passenger numbers are expected to recover in the long term but with uncertainty.

Price Target: NZD 8.26, unchanged from consensus.
Downside Risks: Delayed passenger recovery, geopolitical tensions (e.g., China), regulatory changes, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Upside Scenario: Strengthened recovery; price target increased to NZD 9.46, reflecting if traffic recovers faster than expected.

Prioritized sustainability, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2030 and 85% customer satisfaction by 2030.
Addressing sustainability-linked bonds and reducing environmental impact (noise, pollution).