2025-06-16-花旗集团-奥克兰机场（AIA）_奥克兰机场（AIA.NZ）_2025年5月交通流量改善_但2025财年国际客运量指引不太可能实现_14页_609kb

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Citigroup maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) despite trimming some financial forecasts.
May 2025 traffic showed a 3% year-on-year increase, with international passenger growth at 4% YoY (including transits) and domestic at 1%. International growth was broad-based, driven by segments like New Zealand outbound, Australian nationals, and China/US nationals.
FY25 FY25 international passenger guidance is unlikely to be met due to high growth rates; estimate revised lower to 10.33m, while domestic PAX is in-line at 8.4m. Seat capacity improved, but load factors declined.
Earnings forecasts reflect strength from the Queenstown airport affiliate and higher DVP participation; core EPS growth expected to be around 2%.
Valuation: Current price NZ$7.97, target price NZ$9.00, with 12-month return expectations around 14.6%. PE and other metrics indicate moderate upside, but risks include passenger growth uncertainties and regulatory challenges.
Capex program and asset quality support strong earnings potential into FY26, but dividend yield and Payout ratio are considered modest, with risks from low passenger growth, debt refinancing costs, and foreign exchange factors.

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