2025-06-11-Jefferies-云端动态_航空公司网络流量同比下降1_；美国应用程序用户数量同比持平_15页_565kb

Equity Research Summary: USA Aerospace & Defense Electronics

Global Travel Web Traffic Overview

• Current Status: Global airline and OTA web traffic is -1% y-o-y and -4% T3M y-o-y, though it has improved sequentially.
• US Market: US web traffic is down -4% y-o-y but shows the smallest annual decline, with +9% m-o-m growth.
• Factors: Consumer confidence improved significantly (Conference Board index rose 12.3 points), offset by macroeconomic headwinds, reduced government travel, and weak TRASM figures for airlines.
• Traffic Trends: Sequentially, global traffic increased by +2% m-o-m, with US traffic up 4% m-o-m, suggesting potential demand growth.

Correlation with TSA Throughput

• Indicator: US airline app users track TSA throughput, with a 0.85 correlation over the past three years.
• Estimates: Based on data through May 26, estimated TSA throughput for June 9-16 is down 3% y-o-y but up 2% sequentially for US traffic.

Regional Analysis by Web Traffic

• Asia: Web traffic up 4% y-o-y, led by India (+14%) and Singapore (+13%); South Korea and Taiwan lagged.
• Europe: Traffic rose 2% y-o-y, with Aeroflot leading (+88%) and Air France trailing (-24%).
• Latin America: Traffic +4% y-o-y, with Aeromexico showing strong growth (+48%).
• Middle East: Web traffic down 8% y-o-y, with Qatar and Emirates leading declines; however, long-term investments via Vision 2030 aim for recovery.
• North America: Traffic down 3% y-o-y but saw the smallest decline, with carriers like Hawaiian (+42%) outperforming Southwest (-23%).

Mobile App and Download Metrics (US)

• App Users: US weekly app users are flat y-o-y for all carriers, but the Big Four (American, Delta, United, Southwest) show faster growth (up 6% T3M-o-T3M vs broader group).
• Downloads: Down 11% y-o-y overall; American led with +6% increase, while Spirit had declines.
• Downloads vs Usage: Correlated, with American's downloads up 22% m-o-m.

Company Valuation and Ratings

• Ratings: Analyst ratings include Buy (e.g., American Airlines), Hold (e.g., Delta), Underperform for others.
• Valuation Methodology: Based on factors like market cap, growth, volatility, and various financial metrics.
• Price Targets: Derived from DCF, EV/EBITDA, and other models; example shows United with a Hold rating.

Summary Conclusions

• Web traffic indicators suggest gradual recovery despite year-over-year declines.
• Regional variations highlight opportunities and risks, with Asia-Pacific and Europe showing resilience.
• App and download trends reinforce demand signals, linked to air travel metrics.
• Risks include macroeconomic factors, conflicting interests from investment banking ties, and market volatility.

Key Insights from Data

• Leading Indicators: Web traffic and app usage can predict air travel demand, with correlations suggesting potential upside in leisure and business travel segments.
• Sector Focus: Investments in Middle East and emerging markets via Vision 2030 could drive future growth, but current data shows mixed results.
• Recommendations: Analysts advise monitoring apps for trend changes and considering regional exposures.