20251109-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属周报_后续供需或均有小幅回升_但铅价预计仍以震荡格局为主_7页_1mb

Lead Market Weekly Summary

Overview
The weekly report predicts that both supply and demand may experience small increases in the lead market. However, lead prices are expected to remain in an oscillating pattern due to factors like supply constraints, weak demand, and inventory pressures from upcoming deliveries. The general outlook is neutral, with a recommended price range between 17,000 and 17,700 yuan/ton.

Supply Analysis

• Mine supply is tight, with low or negative processing fees (TC) affecting operations. Regional smelters in Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan show variations in activity, with some reducing output due to raw material shortages.
• Primary lead smelting rates saw a slight increase, particularly in smaller facilities in Henan, but overall capacity is constrained by regional issues.
• Secondary lead production is rising, recovering from lower levels, with several regions reporting significant boosts in activity due to stable raw material supplies and higher inventory.

Demand Analysis

• Consumer demand for lead batteries remains weak, especially in the automotive sector, as market conditions are sluggish.
• While some facilities are resuming production after maintenance, the slow demand hampers full recovery of consumption rates.

Inventory Levels

• Domestic inventory rose to 3.18 million tons, driven by preparations for delivery contracts and increased secondary lead output. Concerns about limited incremental supply and transportation issues add to the cautious view.
• International inventory, particularly at LME, increased due to similar factors.

Price Strategy
The recommended strategy is neutral, with high-low tactics advised based on the oscillating nature of prices. Enterprises can use this range for hedging, but risks include price drops if delivery pressures materialize.

Risk Assessment
Key risks include demand falling short of expectations or concentrate prices improving, which could alter the current market balance.