2025-05-22-Jefferies-国际购物中心协会2025_-边际趋势放缓_10页_461kb

报告摘要

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Equity Research on USA REITs for May 22, 2025, focuses on ICSC 2025 trends with emphasis on slowing retail developments:

Overall Retail Outlook: Physical retail future is positive due to no new supply and retailers' focus on fulfillment-out-of-store, but near-term trajectory is bumpier from consumer caution and incomplete leasing of larger formats. Class A malls show stronger performance, while power centers and secondary markets are weakening.
Key Findings: Discussions with retailers, mall operators, and experts indicate strong leasing demand but emerging slowdown in net absorption. Primary markets for grocer-anchored centers remain strong, but larger boxes in secondary/tertiary areas may languish. Discounters and F&B sectors show interest in second-generation spaces.
Recommendations: Analysts recommend REG, SPG, and MAC with conviction. Undervalued opportunities include AKR and IVT. Companies like BRK, FRT, and KIM have various ratings; specific BUY holds for AKR, IVT, and FIVE.
Risks: Consumer weakening could lead to more bankruptcies, impacting REIT performance. Retail supply is low, but demand for space holds up due to scarcity. F&B faces strong demand but potential disruption from weaker players.
Market Trends: High transaction volumes with wider bid/ask spreads; core retail properties fetch good marks, but cap rates rise for power centers. Upcoming closings include JOANN and Rite Aid in secondary markets.