20231030-宝城期货-甲醇月报_供需预期转弱_甲醇震荡下行_24页_2mb

报告摘要

The methanol market for September-October 2023 experienced downward pressure due to a combination of weakening supply-demand fundamentals and collapsing cost supports. The main 2401 futures contract oscillated and declined from around 2484 yuan/ton down to 2368 yuan/ton, with a narrowing of the 1-5 month spread from 90 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. Overall, supply pressures are increasing, while demand remains stagnant.

Supply: Domestic production rose as several methanol plants restarted in October, leading to higher output and increased inventory levels. Imports remained high, contributing to global supply excess, but some reduction is expected later.
Demand: Downstream industries like formaldehyde, acetone, and olefins showed limited improvement, with some segments even contracting. Seasonal factors and slower economic recovery in key sectors like real estate and textiles weighed on consumption.

Global: High-interest rates persist, with the Fed likely extending this environment. This could shift market focus to duration, potentially worsening commodity prices due to rising US dollar and yield rates.
Domestic China: Economic data in Q3 was better than expected, reflecting policy impacts, but Q4 saw heightened risks from seasonal slowdowns.

Short-term outlook for methanol futures (e.g., 2401) is bearish due to oversupply concerns, fading demand, and weak cost supports. The report recommends monitoring 1-5 month spread for reverse trades to exploit temporary buying pressure. Long-term scenarios involve supply-demand imbalances and currency risks.

Focus on tactical strategies like 1-5 month calendar spreads due to fundamental weakness. Investors should consult updated analyses and consider macro and policy changes.

From: February 24th / End of Brief
Methanol | Monthly Professional Research · Delivering Value

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