20180103-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_660kb

报告摘要

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Turkish economy and financial markets as of 03 January 2018, focusing on inflation, economic growth, and external imbalances. It is prepared by Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. and outlines the expectations of the strategy team regarding key macroeconomic indicators and market dynamics.

Main Views

Inflation Expectations:
The strategy team expects December CPI to rise by 0.7% month-over-month (m/m), higher than the market consensus of 0.5% m/m (Reuters poll). This would bring annual inflation down to 11.9% from 13.0% in November. However, they believe the underlying inflation trend is worsening, and the decline in headline inflation is only short-term relief.
A 8.8% increase in electricity prices in January is expected to add 0.24pp to headline inflation. The minimum wage hike of 14.4% in 2018 is higher than the previous year but lower than 2016, and could risk further inflationary pressures if not aligned with the inflation target.
Economic Activity:
The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in December, the second highest since 2013, indicating strong economic activity in Q4. This puts upside risks to the 2017 GDP growth forecast of 6.5% y/y.
The seasonally adjusted capacity utilization rate (CUR) increased by 1.2% q/q, suggesting continued robust industrial production.
External Imbalances:
The current account deficit is expected to rise to 5.5% of GDP in 2017, up from 3.8% in the previous year.
Core foreign trade deficit increased by USD 2.4bn y/y to USD 4.3bn, driven mainly by core intermediate goods imports rising 27% y/y.
Capital goods imports also surged by 20% y/y, reflecting the need for increased machinery and equipment due to high capacity utilization.

Key Information

Charts and Data Highlights

Chart 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) % y/y
- December CPI is expected to fall to 11.9% due to base effects.
- Food inflation was a key driver in November, and the team expects it to continue influencing CPI in December.
Chart 2: Current account balance (% of GDP)
- The current account deficit is forecasted to increase to 5.6% in 2017.
- Net gold imports contribute 1.3pp to the deficit.
- Energy imports are up to 3.9% of GDP, influenced by higher prices and demand from strong growth.

Market Indicators

Foreign Exchange and Swap Rates:
- USDTRY spot rate is at 3,7714, with a -0.7% daily change and -1.2% weekly change.
- EURTRY is at 4,5464, with a -0.2% daily change and 0.0% weekly change.
- Forward implied and XCCY swap rates show varying trends across different maturities.
Government Bonds Yield Curve:
- 2Y local government bonds are at 13.36% with a -0.04% daily change and -0.04% weekly change.
- 5Y local government bonds are at 12.17% with a -0.19% daily change and -0.58% weekly change.
- 10Y local government bonds are at 11.68% with a +0.01% daily change and -0.27% weekly change.
- Sovereign bonds show varying yields and prices, with the 10Y sovereign bond at 88.4 and a yield of 5.73%.
Corporate Bonds:
- Isctr 2021 is at 101.0 with a yield of 5.09%.
- Garanti 2022 is at 102.2 with a yield of 4.73%.
- Akbank 2025 is at 97.9 with a yield of 5.48%.
CBRT Average Repo Funding Rate:
- The rate is shown in the document, but specific values are not provided.
USDTRY ATM Vol Curve:
- The volatility curve is presented, but specific values are not detailed.

Strategy Contacts

Erkin Işik, CFA – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul, +90 216 635 2987, erkin.isik@teb.com.tr
Wike Groenenberg – Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London, +44 20 7595 8746, wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com
Marcelo Carvalho – Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3418, marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com
Piotr Chwiejczak – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 8715, piotr.chwiejczak@uk.bnpparibas.com
Sai Ulluri – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 1872, sai.ulluri@uk.bnpparibas.com
Mirza Baig – Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore, +65 6210 3262, mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com
Altaz Dagha – AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore, +65 6210 4994, altaz.dagha@asia.bnpparibas.com
Dawn Kwa – Asia Graduate, Singapore, +65 6210 3263, dawn.kwa@asia.bnpparibas.com
Kun Shan – China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2773, kun.shan@asia.bnpparibas.com
Tianhe Ji – China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2785, tianhe.ji@asia.bnpparibas.com
Gabriel Gersztein – Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3421, gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com
Samuel Castro – FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3492, samuel.castro@br.bnpparibas.com
Gustavo Mendonca – FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3445, gustavo.mendonca@br.bnpparibas.com

Legal Disclaimer

The document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading.
It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on this document.
Indicative prices are based on internal models and may vary significantly from other sources.
The information is not investment advice and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
Back-tested performance data is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not guarantee future results.
Confidentiality is emphasized, and reproduction or distribution without consent is prohibited.
Transactions may be subject to high risk and volatility, including market, counterparty, and liquidity risks.
ETFs and other instruments discussed may involve conflicts of interest, and BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the underlying assets.
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