20150819-招商证券_香港_-Industry_Report_22页_4mb

报告摘要

2Q15 Preview Summary: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed preview of the financial performance and market outlook for China Mobile (941 HK), China Telecom (728 HK), and China Unicom (762 HK) for the second quarter of 2015 (2Q15). It includes revenue, EBITDA, net profit forecasts, ARPU trends, and valuation ratios, along with a comparison to the market consensus and other Asia-Pacific peers.

Key Financial Forecasts for 2Q15

China Mobile

Service Revenue: RMB166,383 million
- YoY growth: -2%
- QoQ growth: +3%
EBITDA: RMB62,394 million
- EBITDA margin: 38.0%
Net Profit: RMB30,282 million
- Net profit margin: 18.0%
- Net profit YoY growth: -6.8%
ARPU: RMB59.4
- ARPU QoQ growth: +0.7%
Mobile Subscribers: 817.2 million
- Net adds: 1.8 million
3G/4G Net Adds: 26.6 million
- 3G/4G sub mix: 34.0%
Key Assumptions:
- Revenue growth: 4.1%
- EBITDA growth: 7.5%
- Net profit growth: 3.1%
- EBITDA margin: 37.6%
- Net profit margin: 17.0%

China Telecom

Service Revenue: RMB81,433 million
- YoY growth: -1.6%
- QoQ growth: +0.8%
EBITDA: RMB25,489 million
- EBITDA margin: 31.3%
Net Profit: RMB5,537 million
- Net profit YoY growth: -6.0%
ARPU: RMB55.0
- ARPU QoQ growth: +3.2%
Mobile Subscribers: 191.4 million
- Net adds: 2.6 million
3G/4G Net Adds: 6.2 million
- 3G/4G sub mix: 33.5%
Key Assumptions:
- Revenue growth: 2.9%
- EBITDA growth: 7.5%
- Net profit growth: 3.1%
- EBITDA margin: 37.6%
- Net profit margin: 17.0%

China Unicom

Service Revenue: RMB69,628 million
- YoY growth: -4.7%
- QoQ growth: -2.0%
EBITDA: RMB24,370 million
- EBITDA margin: 35.0%
Net Profit: RMB3,273 million
- Net profit YoY growth: -3.4%
ARPU: RMB41.8
- ARPU QoQ growth: +2.0%
Mobile Subscribers: 289.0 million
- Net adds: -5.4 million
3G/4G Net Adds: 6.4 million
- 3G/4G sub mix: 31.0%
Key Assumptions:
- Revenue growth: 4.1%
- EBITDA growth: 7.5%
- Net profit growth: 3.1%
- EBITDA margin: 37.6%
- Net profit margin: 17.0%

Main Points and Trends

Revenue Growth:
- China Mobile: -2.0% YoY, +3.0% QoQ
- China Telecom: -1.6% YoY, +0.8% QoQ
- China Unicom: -4.7% YoY, -2.0% QoQ
EBITDA Margin:
- China Mobile: 38.0% (up from 36.8% in 1Q15)
- China Telecom: 31.3% (up from 30.1% in 1Q15)
- China Unicom: 35.0% (up from 34.1% in 1Q15)
Net Profit:
- China Mobile: -6.8% YoY
- China Telecom: -6.0% YoY
- China Unicom: -3.4% YoY
ARPU Growth:
- China Mobile: +0.7% QoQ to RMB59.4
- China Telecom: +3.2% QoQ to RMB55.0
- China Unicom: +2.0% QoQ to RMB41.8
Mobile Subscribers:
- China Mobile: 817.2 million (QoQ +1.4%)
- China Telecom: 191.4 million (QoQ +2.6%)
- China Unicom: 289.0 million (QoQ -5.4%)
3G/4G Migration:
- China Mobile: Strong 4G growth, driving ARPU and revenue
- China Telecom: Fast 3G/4G migration, leading to ARPU uplift
- China Unicom: Slower 4G migration and mobile churn impacting performance

Valuation and Market Position

China Mobile:
- Target price (TP): HK$117.00
- Upside: 17%
- EBITDA margin: 38.0%
- P/E: 14.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.9x
- Rating: BUY
China Telecom:
- TP: HK$5.15
- Upside: 22%
- EBITDA margin: 31.3%
- P/E: 15.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.6x
- Rating: BUY
China Unicom:
- TP: HK$11.58
- Upside: 11%
- EBITDA margin: 35.0%
- P/E: 13.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.2x
- Rating: NEUTRAL

Valuation Comparison with Asia-Pacific Peers

Company	Market Cap (US$ mn)	P/E (x)	EV/EBITDA (x)	ROE (%)	Div Yield (%)
China Mobile (941 HK)	264,722	14.4	4.9	12.0	3.0
China Telecom (728 HK)	44,173	15.4	3.6	6.5	2.4
China Unicom (762 HK)	32,321	13.9	3.2	6.0	2.7
Hong Kong Avg	-	17.1	8.1	16.2	4.6
Others (e.g., Hutchtel)	2,071	16.3	12.4	8.6	4.5
India Avg	-	22.3	6.5	5.7	0.5
Korea Avg	-	10.8	4.2	9.6	2.7
Japan Avg	-	18.9	8.3	17.1	1.5

Summary of Key Assumptions

Metric	2015E	2016E	2017E
Revenue Growth (%)	4.1%	5%	5%
EBITDA Growth (%)	7.5%	5.1%	6.3%
Net Profit Growth (%)	3.1%	1.1%	7.3%
EBITDA Margin (%)	37.6%	37.7%	38.2%
Net Profit Margin (%)	16.9%	16.3%	16.6%
ROE (%)	12%	12%	12%
ROIC (%)	21%	22%	22%

Conclusion

China Mobile continues to lead in 4G adoption, which is driving ARPU and EBITDA margin improvements.
China Telecom is also showing positive ARPU growth, supported by strong 4G execution.
China Unicom faces challenges with mobile churn and slower 4G migration, leading to weaker performance.
All three companies are expected to experience net profit declines due to higher depreciation and marketing costs.
The valuation metrics suggest a mixed outlook, with China Mobile and China Telecom being rated as BUY, while China Unicom is rated NEUTRAL.

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