20180105-大华继显-Markets_Overview_5页_256kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (05 January 2018)

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of the global economic and financial market conditions as of 5 January 2018, focusing on key data releases, central bank outlooks, FX movements, equities performance, US Treasuries, commodities, and market holidays.

Main Highlights

US Data Docket

The US data docket is at its busiest, with key releases including:
- December Labor Report: Expected to show 250k NFP increase (from 228k in Nov), with an unemployment rate likely to remain at 4.1%.
- Wage Growth: Anticipated to rise to +0.5% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
The private ADP employment change for December reported a better-than-expected increase of +250k, adding to the positive outlook for the NFP data.
Earnings Season: Begins on Friday (5 Jan) with Constellation Brands, with major US financial institutions set to report on 12 Jan.

Central Bank Outlook

James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) warned that the link between the jobs market and inflation may have disappeared and highlighted the risks of a yield curve inversion.
Patrick Harker (Philadelphia Fed) and Loretta Mester (Cleveland Fed) will speak at the AEA Conference on 5 Jan, while John Williams (San Francisco Fed) will discuss a paper on interest rates on 7 Jan.

FX Market Movements

The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, except the Japanese yen, due to a stronger euro and AUD.
EUR/USD reached a 3-year high of 1.2089.
AUD/USD closed at 0.7864, up from 0.7836.
USD/SGD is expected to trade within a range of 1.3248–1.3313.
SGD NEER is predicted to stay between 1.0% and 1.5% above the midpoint.
USD/JPY hit an intraday high of 112.86, ending the session at 112.75.
KRW and THB appreciated against the USD, while PHP fell slightly.

Equities Performance

US Equities

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 25,000 for the first time at 25,075.13, up +0.61%.
S&P 500 closed at 2,723.99, up +0.40%.
Nasdaq was the weakest performer, closing at 7,077.91, up +0.18%.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged higher to 9.22.

Asian Equities

Nikkei 225 closed up +3.26% after a strong performance in energy, infotech, and materials sectors.
Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and TAIEX also closed higher, while KOSPI was down -0.80%.
Asian stocks are on the brink of their best week in almost six months due to robust global economic data.

US Treasuries

Bond Yields rose across the curve following positive US employment data.
- 2-Year Yield: Closed at 1.95%, up 2 bps.
- 5-Year Yield: Closed at 2.27%, up 2.4 bps.
- 10-Year Yield: Closed at 2.45%, up 0.6 bps.
Yield Curve Flattening: Continued as the 10-year yield marginally outperformed the 30-year yield.

Commodities

Crude Oil Prices: Reached a fresh three-year high, with:
- Nymex WTI: Closed at $62.01, up +0.62%.
- London Brent: Closed at $68.07, up +0.35%.
Gold: Rose to $1,321.60, benefiting from the weaker USD.

Economic News & Data

US ADP Employment: +250k, highest since Mar 2017, well above the consensus of +190k.
US Initial Jobless Claims: 250k, slightly above forecast of 240k but still below 300k.
UK Services PMI: Increased to 54.2, well above estimates of 53.8 and the previous month’s 53.8.
UK House Prices: Rose unexpectedly by +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
India GDP Annual Estimate: Expected to be released at 8pm on 5 Jan.
Singapore PMI: Dropped to 52.1, the lowest since November 2016.
Hong Kong PMI: Rose to 51.5, up from 50.7.
China PMI: Composite rose to 53.0, services to 53.9.

Market Holidays/Events

Japan: Coming-of-age Day on 8 Jan.
US: Martin L. King Day on 15 Jan.
New Zealand: Wellington Anniversary on 22 Jan, Auckland Anniversary on 29 Jan, and Waitangi Day on 6 Feb.
Australia: Australia Day Holiday on 26 Jan.
India: Republic Day on 26 Jan.
Malaysia: Thaipusam Day on 31 Jan, Federal Territory on 1 Feb.

Summary of Key Events

US Data: Strong employment data and the upcoming jobs report are expected to drive market sentiment.
Central Banks: Discussions on monetary policy and yield curve inversion risks are ongoing.
FX: The USD weakened against the euro, AUD, and NZD, while the yen depreciated.
Equities: Global equities, especially in Asia, showed strong gains.
Commodities: Crude oil prices hit a three-year high, and gold benefited from a weaker USD.
Market Outlook: The market is closely watching for further data and central bank statements.

展开完整摘要