现实核验：不确定性时代中东与北非地区增速预测（英）-72页_2mb

报告摘要

MENA Economic Update April 2022 Summary

Core Content

The MENA Economic Update April 2022 provides an in-depth analysis of economic forecasting in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the challenges posed by uncertainty, data opacity, and growth volatility. It evaluates the accuracy and biases of growth forecasts from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and private-sector analysts over the past decade.

Main Findings

Uncertainty and Challenges: The region faces significant uncertainty due to the Ukraine war, pandemic recovery, climate change, and global monetary policy tightening. These factors have disrupted commodity markets, increased inflation, and complicated economic planning.
Growth Volatility: The MENA region experiences high growth volatility, driven by exposure to commodity price shocks and conflict. This volatility makes accurate forecasting more difficult and contributes to the inaccuracy of growth projections.
Data Opacity: Many MENA countries suffer from inadequate data systems, which hinder the ability of forecasters to produce reliable growth projections. The Statistical Capacity Index (SCI) and Statistical Performance Indicator (SPI) show that the region lags behind in data availability and quality, particularly compared to sub-Saharan Africa and high-income economies like those in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Forecast Accuracy: On average, MENA growth forecasts have been more inaccurate and overly optimistic than global forecasts. The average forecast error for the region during 2010–2020 was 2.5 percentage points, compared to 1.3 percentage points globally. The average absolute forecast error was 3.3 percentage points in the region versus 2.5 percentage points globally.
Role of Data Transparency: Improved data transparency and accessibility are critical for enhancing forecast accuracy. The report emphasizes that good-quality data are essential for both public policy and private-sector planning.
Impact of Pandemic and War: The pandemic and Ukraine war have intensified uncertainty. High inflation and disrupted supply chains have created downside risks, while conflict-affected states like Yemen and Libya have outdated data, making it harder to assess economic conditions accurately.
Policy Recommendations: To improve forecasting, the report suggests enhancing data systems through:
- Increasing the frequency and quality of national accounts data.
- Improving communication between ministries and statistical offices.
- Providing technical assistance to governments to improve data collection.
- Using alternative data sources (e.g., satellite data) for conflict-affected economies.

Key Information

Forecasters' Role: Economic forecasts are valuable tools for policy and planning, but they are not always accurate. Overly optimistic forecasts can lead to economic contractions if the actual outcomes fall short.
Regional Differences: GCC economies have better data systems than the rest of the region, but even they are not above average in statistical performance. Conflict-affected economies are particularly disadvantaged due to data gaps and systemic disruptions.
Vaccination and Public Health: The pandemic has highlighted the importance of data transparency in public health. Countries with higher vaccination rates, such as the UAE (94%), are better positioned to manage health crises, while conflict-affected states like Yemen (1.1%) lag significantly.
Forecasting Tools: The report uses "mystery client" approaches and statistical indicators to assess the availability and reliability of data. It also compares forecast types (international, regional, and local) and finds that World Bank forecasts are more accurate than those from the IMF or private-sector analysts.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for better data systems and more cautious forecasting in the MENA region. While growth forecasts are not perfect, they are invaluable for economic planning. However, overly optimistic forecasts can lead to poor policy decisions. Therefore, improving data transparency and statistical capacity is crucial to enhancing forecast accuracy and building economic resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Key Terms and Abbreviations

SCI: Statistical Capacity Indicator
SPI: Statistical Performance Indicator
FCV: Fragile, Conflict and Violence-Affected states
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GEP: Global Economic Prospects
IMF: International Monetary Fund
GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council
MENA: Middle East and North Africa
SCI and SPI: Measures of statistical capacity and performance in developing and advanced economies
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
UNICEF: United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund
WHO: World Health Organization
VAT: Value-added Tax
PMI: Purchasing Manager's Index
SDDS: Special Data Dissemination Standards
QE: Quantitative Easing
LNG: Liquified Natural Gas
LOWESS: Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing
MICS: Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys
DHS: Demographic and Health Surveys
IPUMS: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
HICs: High Income Countries
LICs: Low Income Countries
MICs: Middle Income Countries
OIC: Oil-Importing Countries
OEC: Oil-Exporting Countries
UHC: Universal Health Coverage
USAID: United States Agency for International Development
WDI: World Development Indicators
WEO: World Economic Outlook
SWIFT: Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa
LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean
EAP: East Asia and Pacific
ECA: Europe and Central Asia
NA: North America
N/A: Not Available
UNESCO: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UN: United Nations
WHO: World Health Organization
UAE: United Arab Emirates
UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
IDB: International Development Association
IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IMF: International Monetary Fund
IHSN: International Household Survey Network
IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute
MDG: Millennium Development Goals
PMI: Purchasing Manager's Index
SCI: Statistical Capacity Indicator
SPI: Statistical Performance Indicator
UNICEF: United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund
USAID: United States Agency for International Development
WDI: World Bank Indicators
WHO: World Health Organization
WEO: World Economic Outlook

Key Figures and Tables

Figure I.1–I.10: Illustrate price changes, inflation trends, data transparency, and forecast accuracy in the MENA region.
Figure II.1–II.11: Show forecast errors over time and by institution and region.
Figure BII.3: Compare inflation forecast errors across world regions.
Table I.1–I.3: Summarize the impact of the Ukraine War, growth forecasts, and inflation trends.
Table BI.1: Details MENA inflation episodes from 1970–2020.
Table II.1: Lists MENA macro data availability as of January 2022.
Table III.1: Compares different vintages of 2022 GDP growth forecasts.
Table X1–X4: Present determinants of forecast errors and SCI/SPI sub-indicators as regressors.

Key Boxes

Box I.1: Reviews the history of high inflation in the MENA region from 1970–2020.
Box II.1: Explains the Statistical Capacity Indicator.
Box II.2: Discusses the relationship between data transparency and statistical capacity.
Box II.3: Examines the correlation between forecast accuracy and data quality.
Box II.4: Outlines how the IMF and World Bank produce economic forecasts.