20230825-开源证券-李子园-605337.SH-公司信息更新报告_业绩符合预期_期待品牌焕新与旺季来临_4页_873kb

报告摘要

Investment Rating: Maintain "Buy" with a recommendation.
Stock Performance: Current share price is CNY 165.6, with a 52-week high-low of CNY 2938/-1616. Market capitalization is CNY 65.32 billion, and the company is in the beverage and dairy sector.
Focus Area: Strengthening presence in key regions and national market expansion, leveraging existing brand and channel advantages in East China.

Revenue: CNY 35.6 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of 9%, primarily due to subdued demand in traditional channels and weaker recovery in May-June.
Net Profit: CNY 750 million, showing a substantial year-over-year increase of 211%.
Regional Breakdown: Significant declines in the home market (East China) due to strong reliance on circulation channels, affected by reduced foot traffic. Positive performance in Southwest and South China (growth of 104.1% and 113.9%), while other regions like Northeast and Northwest saw sharp drops.

Projected Net Profit: 3.05 billion CNY for 2023, increasing to 3.71 billion CNY in 2024 and 4.55 billion CNY in 2025.
EPS and PE: Expected EPS of 0.78, 0.94, and 1.16 yuan yuan per share; current price-to-earnings ratio ranges from 146 to 218 times.
Growth Drivers: Anticipated double-digit revenue growth in the second half, supported by enhanced operations and market strategies.

Net Margin Improvement: Q2 net margin rose by 39 percentage points to 21.2%, mainly from a 5.6 percentage point increase in gross margin to 36.8% (due to lower raw material costs and pricing effects) and a reduction in sales expenses by 4 percentage points to 7.8% (from decreased advertising).
Outlook: Continued margin benefits expected from stable raw material costs and improved productivity, with sales fees likely to remain stable or slightly increase but averaged out.

Expansion Risks: Delays in capacity or channel growth could hinder progress.
Market Factors: Vulnerability to external economic conditions, especially in key regions, affecting demand and circulation channels.
Other Factors: Potential volatility in raw material prices.

Growth Expectations: Recovery is anticipated with double-digit revenue growth, driven by seasonal demand, expansion into catering and breakfast outlets, strategic product adjustments, and a refreshed brand launch.
Supporting Measures: Comprehensive channel planning and operational optimizations to boost performance.

Please refer to the full report for detailed disclosures and legal considerations.

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