20240602-广发期货-天然橡胶6月行情展望_原料偏强运行_关注6月主产区新胶上市情况_26页_3mb

中文总结：

本报告展望2024年6月天然橡胶（NR）市场。报告核心观点：预计短期NR价格维持高位震荡，中期则回落，但因EUDR法案导致成本增加，整体中枢上移。

短期来看，主要受三大因素支撑：一是尽管主产区（尤其是东南亚）目前仍受降雨影响导致新胶产出偏弱，但胶农开割意愿强；二是国内现货供应偏紧，进口量低，库存持续去库，基本面支撑胶价；三是5月份已观察到新胶产出不及预期，导致价格阶段性上涨。虽然节前市场存在炒作情绪，但资金避险情绪压制了交易热情，原料价格虽维持强势，但难以形成持续上涨动力。综合分析，考虑到6月中旬前东南亚大规模开割难以实现，全球供应偏紧状况短期难以缓解，预计6月胶价仍将在14000-14500元/吨附近震荡。

中期来看，随着6月东南亚正常开割，供应量将逐步增加，加上工厂产能提升，基本面压力有所加大。但叠加EUDR法案实施带来的生产成本上升，价格中枢预计上移，维持震荡运行，目标区间14000-14500元/吨。

需求端：全钢胎市场需求受制于下游终端成品库存压力愈发严峻，开工下滑，企业采购谨慎。半钢胎则产销尚可，维持较高开工，但整体需求恢复不及供应增量。

供应端：ANRPC预测2024年全球产量同比增16%左右，但泰国、印尼产量降幅明显，部分国家如中国进口量同比大幅下滑，给国内市场带来支撑。

原材料价格方面，泰国、越南原料价格高涨，部分加工厂生产利润回暖，但全球买卖倒挂现象持续，影响贸易流向。

库存方面：国内外库存均呈去化趋势，尤其是深色胶去库力度大于浅色胶，进一步抬升价格支撑。

综合以上因素，报告认为短期胶价受供应缺口支撑强势运行，中期则需关注供应释放节奏及需求反馈，胶价中枢可能被推高，交易区间维持在14000-14500元/吨。

English Summary:

Natural Rubber Market Outlook (June 2024)

Key Views:

Natural Rubber (NR) is expected to remain in a high position of resistance in the short term, with a medium-term decline anticipated but possibly hindered by the Rubber Decree (EUDR), pushing the price center upward.

Short-Term Outlook:
Short-term support comes from three key factors: (1) Weaker-than-expected new rubber output from the main producing areas (especially Southeast Asia) due to recent rainfall, which continued into June, but farmers' cutting intentions are strong; (2) Domestic supply remains tight with low imports; (3) In May, new rubber yields fell short of expectations, causing a price increase in May. Although market sentiment was speculative ahead of the holiday, risk-averse positioning limited buying impulse, leaving prices relatively stable. An early harvest in June could ease supply pressure and support prices (target range: 14,000-14,500 RMB/ton).

Medium-Term Outlook:
Supply pressure from Southeast Asia is expected to ease starting June. However, medium-term prices may face pressure from supply growth, though EUDR implementation could partially offset this by raising production costs, leading to an overall price increase (likely range: 14,000-14,500 RMB/ton).

Demand:
The heavy tire sector faces challenges from excessive downstream inventory and weak procurement sentiment. The light tire sector remains relatively robust but is expected to lag behind supply growth.

Supply:
According to ANRPC, global production is expected to increase by ~16% in 2024, driven mainly by China and other ASEAN countries, while imports into China plummeted. Thailand and Indonesia witnessed significant production declines due to weather issues.

Raw Material Prices and Profit:
Thai and Vietnamese raw material prices remained high. Processing margins for both TSR20 and RSS3 have improved, partly due to higher raw material prices and weaker imports lifting demand. However, EUDR concerns may limit deep discounts for exporters.

Inventory:
Both domestic and international inventories continue to decline rapidly (+3,000 bales in total inventories), especially for dark rubber, adding support to prices.

Conclusion:

Demand uncertainties from the downstream tire sector and concerns of inventories persist, while EUDR may add upward pressure. The short-term tight supply and higher price center suggest potential for NR to stay strong around 14,000-14,500 RMB/ton, though medium-term profit expectations have declined slightly.