2021-09-26-瑞士信贷集团-ESG研究_碳循环系列之评估天然气作为过渡燃料的可持续性_44页_1mb

The report assesses the role of natural gas as a transition fuel in a low-carbon world. While gas emits less CO2 than coal, its sustainability depends on factors like methane emissions, climate policies, and renewable advancements. Under various warming scenarios, gas demand could range from 200 EJ/y to 68 EJ/y by 2050, highlighting sensitivity to policy. Carbon prices and lower gas costs can drive coal-to-gas switching, but rising climate urgency and methane's high short-term warming potential raise significant uncertainties. Additionally, lower renewable costs and direct coal-to-renewables shifts may limit gas's role, while infrastructure and stranded asset risks increase with policy uncertainty. The transition narrative for gas is complex and contingent on global actions.