欧佩克-2018年12月石油市场报告（英文）-2018.12-108页_14mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - December 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive review of the oil market in 2018 and an outlook for 2019, including analysis of crude oil price movements, world oil demand and supply, product markets, refinery operations, tanker market trends, and stock movements. It also outlines the publishing schedule for 2019 and details the contributors and analysts involved in the report.

Main Points

Crude Oil Price Movements

• OPEC Reference Basket (ORB):
  • Ended November at $65.33/b, down by $14.06 or 17.7% month-on-month (m-o-m).
  • Year-to-date (y-t-d) value was $70.75/b, a 37.1% increase from the same period in 2017.
• Crude Oil Futures:
  • ICE Brent prices fell to $65.95/b, down $14.68 or 18.2% m-o-m, and hit their lowest level since October 2017.
  • NYMEX WTI prices dropped to $56.69/b, down $14.06 or 19.9% m-o-m.
  • Y-t-d, ICE Brent was up 35.1% at $72.87/b, and NYMEX WTI increased by 31.9% to $66.27/b.
• Price Spread:
  • The first-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed to $9.26/b from $9.87/b.
• Market Structure:
  • Both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves were in contango in November due to faster supply growth than demand.
  • The Dubai backwardation eased sharply due to higher crude oil supply.

World Economy

• Global Economic Growth:
  • Forecasted at 3.7% for 2018 and 3.5% for 2019.
  • The US growth remained at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.6% for 2019.
  • Euro-zone growth was at 1.9% for 2018 and 1.7% for 2019.
  • Japan's GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% for 2018 but remained at 1.1% for 2019.
  • Non-OECD growth forecasts:
    • India: 7.5% in 2018, 7.2% in 2019.
    • China: 6.5% in 2018, 6.1% in 2019.
    • Brazil: 1.1% in 2018, 1.8% in 2019.
    • Russia: 1.6% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019.
• Economic Risks:
  • Trade tensions, monetary tightening, and geopolitical challenges have increased downside risks.
  • The upside appears limited, mainly due to trade resolution and slower monetary normalization.

World Oil Demand

• 2018 Demand Growth:
  • Projected to grow by 1.50 mb/d, unchanged from previous month.
  • Total oil demand is now estimated at 98.79 mb/d.
• 2019 Demand Growth:
  • Forecasted to increase by 1.29 mb/d, reaching 100.08 mb/d.
  • Regional Breakdown:
    • OECD: 0.25 mb/d.
    • Non-OECD: 1.04 mb/d.
  • Leading Regions:
    • OECD Americas: Strong petrochemical plant expansion and economic activities.
    • Other Asia: Driven by robust oil product consumption in India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.
• Demand Drivers:
  • Other Asia is expected to lead demand growth in 2019, followed by China and OECD Americas.
  • Middle East demand weakened due to economic reforms and lower Asian refiner demand.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC Supply Growth:
  • 2018: Estimated at 2.50 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.19 mb/d from July 2018.
  • 2019: Revised down to 2.16 mb/d, expected to average 62.19 mb/d.
• Key Supply Drivers:
  • US, Canada, Russia, and Brazil.
  • The UK will also contribute due to upstream projects.
• OPEC NGLs:
  • Expected to grow by 0.10 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.34 mb/d and 6.45 mb/d.
• OPEC Crude Oil Production:
  • Decreased by 11 tb/d in November to average 32.97 mb/d.
  • The production adjustment decision at the 175th OPEC Conference is expected to help stabilize the market.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• OECD Americas:
  • Product markets weakened slightly, with gasoil and jet/kerosene inventory drawdowns.
• Europe:
  • Strong recovery in product markets, driven by higher cracks at the middle and bottom of the barrel.
  • French refinery strikes boosted sentiment.
• Asia:
  • Product markets continued to weaken due to lower demand from Asian refiners and higher competition from US crudes.

Tanker Market

• Freight Rates:
  • General strengthening trend in November, with dirty tanker spot rates rising by 21% m-o-m.
  • Clean tanker freight rates also increased.
• Market Factors:
  • Increased tonnage requirements, tighter supply, and transit delays.
  • Lower bunker prices reduced operational costs, enhancing earnings.

Stock Movements

• OECD Commercial Oil Stocks:
  • Rose by 7.6 mb m-o-m in October to 2,883 mb.
  • 41 mb below the same period in 2017, but 22.5 mb above the latest five-year average.
• Days of Forward Cover:
  • Increased by 0.5 days m-o-m to 60.0 days in October.
  • 1.0 day below 2017 levels and 1.2 days lower than the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• 2018 OPEC Crude Demand:
  • Estimated at 32.4 mb/d, down 1.1 mb/d from 2017.
• 2019 OPEC Crude Demand:
  • Forecast at 31.4 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d lower than 2018.
• Market Outlook:
  • The production adjustment decision is expected to help maintain market stability.

Key Information

• OPEC Reference Basket (ORB):
  • The lowest level since March 2018.
  • Strongest monthly decline since January 2015.
• Crude Oil Futures:
  • ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both saw significant declines in November.
  • The Brent/WTI spread narrowed by 62¢ to $9.26/b.
• Hedge Funds and Money Managers:
  • Reduced speculative net long positions to their lowest levels in over a year.
  • Concerns about global oversupply led to massive liquidation of long positions.
• Non-OPEC Supply:
  • Increased to 2.50 mb/d in 2018, mainly due to US, Canada, and Russia.
  • Revised down to 2.16 mb/d for 2019 due to factors like Alberta's production adjustment and reduced forecasts for non-OPEC countries.
• Market Uncertainties:
  • Continued improvements in US shale productivity, oil transportation bottlenecks, and new projects in non-OPEC countries may affect supply forecasts.

Publishing Schedule for 2019

• Key Dates:
  • 17 January
  • 12 February
  • 14 March
  • 10 April
  • 14 May
  • 13 June
  • 11 July
  • 13 August
  • 11 September
  • 10 October
  • 14 November
  • 11 December

Contributors and Analysts

• Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani
• Editor: Behrooz Baikalizadeh
• Analysts:
  • Crude Oil Price Movements
  • Commodity Markets
  • World Economy
  • World Oil Demand
  • World Oil Supply
  • Product Markets and Refinery Operations
  • Tanker Market and Oil Trade
  • Stock Movements
• Technical Team:
  • Yacine Sariahmed, Hector Hurtado, Afshin Javan, Imad Al-Khayyat, Joerg Spitzy, Hassan Balfakeih, Mohammad Ali Danesh, Tona Ndamba, Anisah Almadhayyan, Aziz Yahyai, Nadir Guerer, Viveca Hameder

Statistical Services

• Adedapo Odulaja: Head, Data Services Department
• Hossein Hassani: Statistical Systems Coordinator
• Pantelis Christodoulides: World Oil Demand
• Klaus Stoeger: World Oil Supply
• Mohammad Sattar: Crude Oil Price Movements, Tanker Market, Oil Trade
• Ryszard Pospiech: Commodity Markets, Stock Movements
• Mihni Mihnev: World Economy, Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Key Charts and Graphs

• Graph 1: 2019 real GDP growth for selected countries
• Graph 2: World oil demand and non-OPEC supply revisions from initial forecast in 2018 and 2019
• Graph 1 - 2: NYMEX WTI vs. Managed money net long positions
• Graph 1 - 3: ICE Brent vs. Managed money net long positions