2026年3月石油市场报告_92页_3mb

Oil Market Report Summary - 12 March 2026

Core Content

The global oil market is facing unprecedented disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has led to a severe reduction in crude and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has caused a significant supply loss, with Gulf countries cutting production by at least 10 mb/d. The situation is expected to worsen if tanker traffic through the Strait is not restored quickly, as storage capacities are nearing full.

Key Supply Disruptions

• Strait of Hormuz: Crude and product flows have dropped from around 20 mb/d to a trickle. This has forced Gulf producers to reduce production and export volumes.
• Production Curtailments: Crude production is estimated to be curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, with an additional 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs shut in.
• Refinery Closures: Over 4 mb/d of refining capacity is at risk due to attacks and limited export options, impacting product supplies.
• Alternative Routes: Some Gulf producers are rerouting crude to Red Sea and other terminals, but these efforts are limited and require additional logistical support.

Demand Impacts

• Global Demand Forecast: The war has led to a reduction in global oil demand growth by 210 kb/d for 2026, with a revised forecast of 640 kb/d y-o-y.
• Product-Specific Effects:
  • Jet Fuel/Kerosene: Demand is expected to drop by 1 mb/d in March and April, with the Middle East accounting for about half of the decline.
  • LPG/Ethane: Annual demand growth has been reduced by 170 kb/d to 150 kb/d, with China and India accounting for two-thirds of the downward revision.
  • Naphtha: Demand is up by 70 kb/d, mainly in China, as it substitutes for lost propane and polymer imports.
• Regional Demand Trends:
  • Asia/Pacific: Demand growth is projected at 1.1 mb/d y-o-y.
  • Europe: Demand is expected to be flat or slightly down, with a projected annual contraction of 30 kb/d.
  • Americas: Demand is projected to grow by 100 kb/d in 2026, driven by US and Mexican consumption.

Emergency Stock Releases

• IEA Agreement: On 11 March, IEA member countries agreed to release $400\mathrm{mb}$ of oil from emergency reserves to stabilize the market.
• Global Inventories: Observed oil stocks are at their highest level since February 2021, with 8.2 billion barrels currently in storage.
• Stock Distribution:
  • OECD: 1.25 billion barrels for emergency purposes.
  • China: 15% of global crude stocks.
  • Oil on water: 25% of global crude stocks.
  • Other non-OECD countries: The remainder.

Price Volatility

• Brent Futures: Prices have fluctuated significantly since 28 February, rising to near $120/bbl before easing to around $92/bbl.
• Charter Rates: VLCC rates have surged to over six times their five-year average, affecting global freight costs.
• Economic Impact: Higher oil prices are expected to reduce global GDP by around 0.15% if sustained, with economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures further complicating the outlook.

Refining and Petrochemical Markets

• Refining Capacity: Over 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the Gulf has been reduced or shut due to the conflict.
• Petrochemical Impact: LPG and naphtha supply chains are severely disrupted, affecting polymer production and local use.
• India's Vulnerability: India relies heavily on Middle East LPG exports, with over 45% of its crude imports coming from the region. Its lack of storage capacity makes it particularly vulnerable to supply interruptions.

Key Producers and Their Strategic Measures

• Saudi Aramco: Has strategic-commercial storage in key markets, including Japan and the Netherlands, allowing it to respond to local needs.
• UAE's ADNOC: Has agreements to store crude in India, helping offset supply losses.
• Russian Crude: Some Russian crude is available for re-export to India, with a 30-day suspension of OFAC sanctions enabling immediate access.

Outlook and Risks

• Supply Resumption: The resumption of oil flows depends heavily on resolving the conflict and ensuring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Demand Uncertainty: The war and associated flight cancellations are likely to continue affecting demand, especially for jet fuel and LPG.
• Economic Impact: Higher oil prices and economic uncertainty are expected to weigh on global growth, particularly for industrial and luxury products.

Summary of Key Figures

• Crude Supply Loss: 8 mb/d in March, with potential for further reductions.
• Global Demand Growth: 640 kb/d y-o-y for 2026, down from previous estimates.
• Emergency Stock Release: $400\mathrm{mb}$ from IEA members to mitigate supply disruptions.
• Global Crude Stocks: Over 8.2 billion barrels, the highest since February 2021.
• Fuel Price Impact: Jet/kerosene prices are expected to rise, affecting airline costs and demand.