> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Oil Market Report Summary - 12 March 2026 ## Core Content The global oil market is facing unprecedented disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has led to a severe reduction in crude and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has caused a significant supply loss, with Gulf countries cutting production by at least 10 mb/d. The situation is expected to worsen if tanker traffic through the Strait is not restored quickly, as storage capacities are nearing full. ## Key Supply Disruptions - **Strait of Hormuz**: Crude and product flows have dropped from around 20 mb/d to a trickle. This has forced Gulf producers to reduce production and export volumes. - **Production Curtailments**: Crude production is estimated to be curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, with an additional 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs shut in. - **Refinery Closures**: Over 4 mb/d of refining capacity is at risk due to attacks and limited export options, impacting product supplies. - **Alternative Routes**: Some Gulf producers are rerouting crude to Red Sea and other terminals, but these efforts are limited and require additional logistical support. ## Demand Impacts - **Global Demand Forecast**: The war has led to a reduction in global oil demand growth by 210 kb/d for 2026, with a revised forecast of 640 kb/d y-o-y. - **Product-Specific Effects**: - **Jet Fuel/Kerosene**: Demand is expected to drop by 1 mb/d in March and April, with the Middle East accounting for about half of the decline. - **LPG/Ethane**: Annual demand growth has been reduced by 170 kb/d to 150 kb/d, with China and India accounting for two-thirds of the downward revision. - **Naphtha**: Demand is up by 70 kb/d, mainly in China, as it substitutes for lost propane and polymer imports. - **Regional Demand Trends**: - **Asia/Pacific**: Demand growth is projected at 1.1 mb/d y-o-y. - **Europe**: Demand is expected to be flat or slightly down, with a projected annual contraction of 30 kb/d. - **Americas**: Demand is projected to grow by 100 kb/d in 2026, driven by US and Mexican consumption. ## Emergency Stock Releases - **IEA Agreement**: On 11 March, IEA member countries agreed to release $400\mathrm{mb}$ of oil from emergency reserves to stabilize the market. - **Global Inventories**: Observed oil stocks are at their highest level since February 2021, with 8.2 billion barrels currently in storage. - **Stock Distribution**: - OECD: 1.25 billion barrels for emergency purposes. - China: 15% of global crude stocks. - Oil on water: 25% of global crude stocks. - Other non-OECD countries: The remainder. ## Price Volatility - **Brent Futures**: Prices have fluctuated significantly since 28 February, rising to near $120/bbl before easing to around $92/bbl. - **Charter Rates**: VLCC rates have surged to over six times their five-year average, affecting global freight costs. - **Economic Impact**: Higher oil prices are expected to reduce global GDP by around 0.15% if sustained, with economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures further complicating the outlook. ## Refining and Petrochemical Markets - **Refining Capacity**: Over 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the Gulf has been reduced or shut due to the conflict. - **Petrochemical Impact**: LPG and naphtha supply chains are severely disrupted, affecting polymer production and local use. - **India's Vulnerability**: India relies heavily on Middle East LPG exports, with over 45% of its crude imports coming from the region. Its lack of storage capacity makes it particularly vulnerable to supply interruptions. ## Key Producers and Their Strategic Measures - **Saudi Aramco**: Has strategic-commercial storage in key markets, including Japan and the Netherlands, allowing it to respond to local needs. - **UAE's ADNOC**: Has agreements to store crude in India, helping offset supply losses. - **Russian Crude**: Some Russian crude is available for re-export to India, with a 30-day suspension of OFAC sanctions enabling immediate access. ## Outlook and Risks - **Supply Resumption**: The resumption of oil flows depends heavily on resolving the conflict and ensuring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. - **Demand Uncertainty**: The war and associated flight cancellations are likely to continue affecting demand, especially for jet fuel and LPG. - **Economic Impact**: Higher oil prices and economic uncertainty are expected to weigh on global growth, particularly for industrial and luxury products. ## Summary of Key Figures - **Crude Supply Loss**: 8 mb/d in March, with potential for further reductions. - **Global Demand Growth**: 640 kb/d y-o-y for 2026, down from previous estimates. - **Emergency Stock Release**: $400\mathrm{mb}$ from IEA members to mitigate supply disruptions. - **Global Crude Stocks**: Over 8.2 billion barrels, the highest since February 2021. - **Fuel Price Impact**: Jet/kerosene prices are expected to rise, affecting airline costs and demand.