2018年4月石油市场月报（英文版）-2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - April 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global oil market, including crude oil price movements, supply and demand dynamics, product markets, and the impact of geopolitical and economic factors. It also discusses the introduction of China's new crude oil futures contract and its potential implications for the global market.

Main Points

Crude Oil Price Movements

• In March 2018, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by less than 0.5% to $63.76/b, reflecting typical lower demand due to seasonal refinery turnarounds.
• Oil futures were volatile, ending about 1% higher, driven by robust oil demand growth forecasts, tightening US crude stocks, and geopolitical tensions.
• ICE Brent rose 1.5% to $66.72/b, while NYMEX WTI increased 0.9% to $62.77/b.
• The year-to-date increase for ICE Brent was $12.66 or 23.2%, and for NYMEX WTI it was $11.11 or 21.5%.
• The spread between ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI widened slightly to $3.95/b.
• The Dubai market structure flipped back to contango, while Brent and WTI remained in backwardation but at reduced levels.

World Economy

• The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
• US growth is unchanged at 2.7% for 2018, up from 2.3% in 2017.
• Euro-zone growth was revised up to 2.3% in 2018, following 2.5% in 2017.
• Japan's 2018 growth forecast remains at 1.5%, after 1.7% in 2017.
• India and China's 2018 GDP growth forecasts remain at 7.2% and 6.5%, respectively, following 6.3% and 6.9% in 2017.

World Oil Demand

• World oil demand in 2017 was revised up by 30 tb/d to 1.65 mb/d, mainly due to updated OECD and non-OECD data.
• For 2018, demand growth was revised up by 30 tb/d to 1.63 mb/d.
• OECD demand growth was supported by colder-than-expected weather, strong mining activity, and higher product consumption.
• Non-OECD demand in Other Asia was revised up, while the Middle East saw a reduction in demand growth.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC supply in 2017 was revised up by 0.03 mb/d to show a 0.9 mb/d growth for the year.
• In 2018, non-OPEC supply growth was revised up by 0.08 mb/d to 1.71 mb/d year-on-year.
• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production is expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d in 2018.
• OPEC crude production in March decreased by 201 tb/d to 31.96 mb/d.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed strong gains in March due to the onset of the spring refinery maintenance season.
• US gasoline demand increased, supported by price adjustments and drawdowns.
• Middle distillate demand and tighter inventories supported product markets in Europe.
• Asian product markets weakened slightly due to lower arbitrage opportunities and reduced heating needs.

Tanker Market

• Average dirty tanker spot freight rates were flat in March.
• Weak freight rates persisted across all major trading routes due to tonnage oversupply and insufficient market activity.
• Clean tanker freight rates declined slightly, particularly in the West of Suez direction.

Stock Movements

• OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 17.4 mb in February to 2,854 mb, above the five-year average.
• Crude stocks showed a surplus, while product stocks were below the five-year average.
• Days of forward cover increased to 60.6 days, slightly above the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC crude demand in 2017 was 32.9 mb/d, up 0.6 mb/d from 2016.
• OPEC crude demand in 2018 is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, down 0.3 mb/d from 2017.

Summer Product Market Outlook

• Product markets in 2017 saw record-high refinery margins, and this trend continued in 1Q18.
• US product demand started strong in 2018, with combined gasoline and diesel growth of 845 tb/d y-o-y in January.
• Total combined oil products growth in the US reached 1 mb/d, the highest in 22 years.
• US gasoline and distillate stocks dropped significantly, below the five-year average, indicating potential market tightening.
• Strong car sales in the EU and Asia, along with increased freight shipments and housing activity, support product demand.
• The recent lifting of restrictions on heavy-duty trucking and industrial production in northern China is expected to boost diesel demand.
• Global gasoline and distillates demand is forecast to grow by around 992 tb/d in 2018.

China's New Crude Oil Futures Contract

• Launched on 26 March 2018, China's new crude oil futures contract is designed to establish a regional benchmark for oil pricing in Asia.
• China became the world's largest crude importer in 2017, taking in 8.5 mb/d.
• The contract includes seven medium-sour crudes, which are heavier and more sour than Brent and WTI, making it a more relevant benchmark for China.
• On the first day, over 40 million paper barrels were traded.
• The contract is settled in yuan, which introduces currency risk for western investors.
• The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) aims to support price discovery and risk management for enterprises, offering an alternative to Brent and Dubai Oman.

Futures Market Structure

• The Dubai market structure turned to contango due to lower seasonal demand in Asia.
• Middle East producers reduced their Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for May crude delivery.
• Brent and WTI remained in backwardation but at lower levels.
• The North Sea Brent M1/M3 backwardation decreased to 41¢/b, while the Dubai M1/M3 spread turned from a premium to a discount.
• US WTI backwardation worsened to 26¢/b.
• The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened to $3.95/b in March.

Key Figures and Trends

• Crude Oil Prices (March 2018):

  • ORB: $63.76/b (+0.4%)
  • ICE Brent: $66.72/b (+1.5%)
  • NYMEX WTI: $62.77/b (+0.9%)
  • DME Oman: $63.54/b (+0.9%)

• Speculative Positions:

  • ICE Brent net long positions reached an all-time high of 615,660 contracts.
  • NYMEX WTI net long positions increased to 468,015 contracts.
  • Long-to-short ratio for ICE Brent increased to 15.5:1, while for NYMEX WTI it decreased to 16.8:1.

• Demand Forecast (2018):

  • Total world oil demand is expected to average 98.70 mb/d.
  • OECD demand growth is supported by industrial and transportation activity.
  • Non-OECD demand in Other Asia is up, while the Middle East is down.

• Supply Forecast (2018):

  • Non-OPEC supply is estimated to average 59.61 mb/d.
  • OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d.

• Tanker Market:

  • Average dirty tanker spot freight rates were flat.
  • Clean tanker rates declined slightly, especially in the West of Suez direction.

• Stocks:

  • OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 17.4 mb in February.
  • Days of forward cover increased to 60.6 days.

• Refinery Margins:

  • Refinery margins remained strong, with US gasoline and distillate stocks dropping significantly.
  • Positive macroeconomic indicators and increased freight activity supported product demand.

• China's INE Crude Futures:

  • The contract includes seven medium-sour crudes.
  • It could serve as a regional benchmark for crude pricing in Asia.
  • The contract's success will depend on volume and open interest growth.