2019年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_MOMR_20December_202018_108页_14mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - December 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global oil market for November 2018 and outlines the outlook for 2019. It includes insights on crude oil prices, supply and demand dynamics, commodity markets, world economy, and other related sectors such as product markets, refinery operations, tanker markets, and stock movements.

Key Highlights

Crude Oil Prices:
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $14.06, or 17.7%, month-on-month (m-o-m) to average $65.33/b, its lowest level since March 2018.
- Year-to-Date (Y-t-d): ORB value was $19.14, or 37.1%, higher at $70.75/b compared to the same period in 2017.
- Futures Market:
  - ICE Brent fell by $14.68, or 18.2%, to $65.95/b, with eight consecutive weekly declines.
  - NYMEX WTI dropped by $14.06, or 19.9%, to $56.69/b.
  - DME Oman crude futures declined by $14.41, or 18.0%, to $65.63/b.
  - The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed to $9.26/b in November.
- Market Structure:
  - Both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves were in contango due to excess supply and weak demand.
  - The Dubai backwardation eased due to increased crude supply.
- Speculative Positions:
  - Hedge funds and money managers reduced their speculative net long positions, reaching their lowest levels in over a year.
  - Net long positions for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI fell by 480 mb since October.
  - The long-to-short ratio for ICE Brent decreased from 5:1 to 3:1, and for NYMEX WTI from 4:1 to 3:1.

World Economy Outlook

Global Growth Forecast:
- 2018: 3.7%
- 2019: 3.5%
OECD Growth:
- US: 2.9% (2018), 2.6% (2019)
- Euro-zone: 1.9% (2018), 1.7% (2019)
Non-OECD Growth:
- India: 7.5% (2018), 7.2% (2019)
- China: 6.5% (2019)
- Brazil: 1.1% (2018), 1.8% (2019)
- Russia: 1.6% (2018), 1.7% (2019)
Economic Risks:
- Trade tensions, monetary tightening, and geopolitical issues skew risks to the downside.
- The upside is limited, mainly due to trade resolution and slower-than-expected policy normalization.

World Oil Demand

2018 Demand Growth:
- Estimated at 1.50 mb/d, unchanged from previous month.
- Total world oil demand is now at 98.79 mb/d.
2019 Demand Growth:
- Anticipated to rise by 1.29 mb/d, reaching 100.08 mb/d.
- Leading Regions:
  - OECD Americas: Driven by petrochemical expansion and economic activity.
  - Other Asia: Led by India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.
Regional Breakdown:
- OECD: +0.25 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.04 mb/d

World Oil Supply

2018 Non-OPEC Supply Growth:
- Estimated at 2.50 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.19 mb/d from July 2018.
- Main Drivers: US, Canada, Russia.
- Largest Declines: Mexico, Norway.
2019 Non-OPEC Supply Growth:
- Revised down to 2.16 mb/d.
- Expected Drivers: US, Brazil, UK.
- Expected Declines: Mexico, Norway.
OPEC NGLs:
- Expected to grow by 0.10 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.34 mb/d and 6.45 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC Crude Production:
- In November, OPEC crude production decreased by 11 tb/d to average 32.97 mb/d.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Atlantic Basin:
- US: Product markets weakened slightly due to gasoil and jet/kerosene inventory drawdowns.
- Europe: Strong recovery, supported by soaring cracks in the middle and bottom of the barrel.
- Asia: Continued weakness due to lower middle distillate demand and higher competition from US crudes.
Refinery Margins:
- Weak in the US and globally due to lower refining activity.
- Strong in Europe due to improved cracks and lower feedstock costs.
Crude Price Differentials:
- Light sweet crude prices fell in most markets, with the sweet/sour differential narrowing.
- Light distillate margins weakened, while middle distillate margins remained strong.

Tanker Market

Freight Rates:
- Increased in both dirty and clean segments, driven by higher tonnage requirements and transit delays.
- Dirty Tanker Spot Rates: Rose by 21% m-o-m.
Operational Costs:
- Reduced bunker prices enhanced earnings.

Stock Movements

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks:
- Rose by 7.6 mb m-o-m in October to 2,883 mb, 41 mb below the same period in 2017.
- Days of Forward Cover: Increased to 60.0 days in October, up 0.5 days m-o-m.
Crude Stocks:
- Surplus of 4.0 mb.
Product Stocks:
- 18.5 mb above the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC Crude Demand:
- 2018: 32.4 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d lower than 2017.
- 2019: Forecast at 31.4 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d lower than 2018.
OPEC Production Adjustments:
- OPEC and non-OPEC agreed to reduce production by 1.2 mb/d starting January 2019, to stabilize the market.

Feature Article Summary

2018 Review:
- Global oil demand growth slowed compared to 2017, but remained healthy.
- Non-OPEC supply growth exceeded initial expectations.
2019 Outlook:
- Demand growth is expected to be around 1.29 mb/d, surpassing the 100 mb/d threshold.
- Non-OPEC supply growth is forecast at 2.16 mb/d, driven by US and Brazil.
- OPEC production cut aims to stabilize the market amid oversupply concerns.
Economic Factors:
- Trade tensions and monetary tightening are key downside risks.
- Global growth momentum is expected to slow in 2019.

Contributors and Contact Information

Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, Research Division
Editor: Behrooz Baikalizadeh, Petroleum Studies Department
Analysts:
- Crude Oil Price Movements
- Commodity Markets
- World Economy
- World Oil Demand
- World Oil Supply
- Product Markets and Refinery Operations
- Tanker Market and Oil Trade
- Stock Movements
Technical Team: Yacine Sariahmed, Hector Hurtado, Afshin Javan, Imad Al-Khayyat, Joerg Spitzy, Hassan Balfakeih, Mohammad Ali Danesh, Tona Ndamba, Anisah Almadhayyan, Aziz Yahyai, Nadir Guerer, Viveca Hameder
Statistical Services:
- Adedapo Odulaja, Data Services Department
- Hossein Hassani, Statistical Systems Coordinator
- Pantelis Christodoulides, World Oil Demand
- Klaus Stoeger, World Oil Supply
- Mohammad Sattar, Crude Oil Price Movements, Tanker Market, Oil Trade
- Ryszard Pospiech, Commodity Markets, Stock Movements
Editing, Production, Design and Circulation: James Griffin, Alvino-Mario Fantini, Maureen MacNeill, Scott Laury, Matthew Quinn, Hataichanok Leimlehner, Julia Hackl, Andrea Birnbach