2026年5月石油市场报告_76页_3mb

Oil Market Report Summary (13 May 2026)

Core Content

The Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2026 highlights the significant disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a sharp decline in global oil demand and supply, with far-reaching implications for prices, refining margins, and global oil inventories.

Main Points

Global Oil Demand

• Forecasted Decline: Global oil demand is expected to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026, reaching 104 mb/d, 1.3 mb/d less than the pre-war forecast.
• Quarterly Impact: The biggest drop in demand occurs in 2Q26, with a 2.45 mb/d decline.
• OECD vs. Non-OECD:
  • OECD demand fell by 930 kb/d in 2Q26.
  • Non-OECD demand dropped by 1.5 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q26, with a contraction of 700 kb/d in the petrochemical sector and 210 kb/d in aviation fuels.
• Regional Variations:
  • Asia/Pacific: Demand fell by 861 kb/d in 2026, with 440 kb/d in 2Q26.
  • Europe: Demand declined by 124 kb/d in 2026.
  • Americas: Demand growth remained modest, with a slight increase in 2026.
  • Middle East: Demand fell by 324 kb/d y-o-y in 2026, with naphtha being the most affected product.

Global Oil Supply

• Supply Decline: Global oil supply dropped by 1.8 mb/d in April, totaling 12.8 mb/d since February.
• Gulf Output: Gulf countries' output was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels, with 1.5 mb/d of oil now shut in.
• Atlantic Basin Relief: Higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin helped offset some losses, with 3.5 mb/d increase in crude exports since February.
• Future Outlook: Assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens gradually from June, global supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d in 2026, reaching 102.2 mb/d.

Refining Activity

• Crude Throughput: Refinery crude throughputs are expected to drop by 4.5 mb/d in 2Q26, to 78.7 mb/d, and by 1.6 mb/d for the year, to 82.3 mb/d.
• Margins and Cracks: Refining margins remain historically high, supported by record middle distillate cracks.
• Adaptation: Refiners are adapting by shifting trade flows and redirecting exports, especially from the Gulf.

Global Oil Inventories

• Inventory Drawdowns: Global observed oil inventories fell by 250 mb in March and April, or 4 mb/d.
• On-Land vs. On-Water: On-land stocks dropped by 170 mb in April, while on-water stocks rebounded by 53 mb.
• OECD and Non-OECD:
  • OECD on-land stocks plummeted by 146 mb.
  • Non-OECD visible stocks fell by 24 mb.
• Cumulative Deficit: By September 2026, cumulative oil liquids deficit is expected to reach 900 mb, with 400 mb from IEA coordinated releases.

Oil Prices

• Price Volatility: North Sea Dated prices fluctuated widely, from $144/bbl to $100/bbl, then rebounded to $120.36/bbl.
• Futures and Spot: Oil futures and spot prices aligned again in May, with prompt time spreads ending the month at around $5/bbl.
• Premiums: The premium of Dated to ICE Brent futures weakened from $35/bbl to $3/bbl.

Key Information

• Impact of the Strait Closure: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted oil flows, leading to cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels.
• Economic Impact: The war has contributed to slower economic growth and higher oil prices, which are expected to reduce demand.
• Demand-Saving Measures: Governments and companies have implemented price controls, rationing, and four-day work weeks to mitigate the impact of the oil crisis.
• Precautionary Buying: Consumers in several regions, including the UK, France, and India, have increased fuel purchases in anticipation of price hikes, temporarily boosting demand.
• Regional Shifts: The Atlantic Basin has increased exports, helping to soften the impact of the Gulf supply loss, while refined products remain in deficit due to lower feedstock availability and export restrictions.

Outlook

• Supply-Demand Balance: The market is expected to remain in deficit until the end of 2026, with a modest surplus emerging in October.
• Price Volatility: Further price fluctuations are anticipated ahead of the peak summer demand period.
• Recovery Prospects: If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, demand may return to positive growth in August, but supply recovery is expected to lag.
• Systemic Risk: The report warns of a prolonged inventory deficit, which could extend beyond 2026, and highlights the potential for systemic crisis if supply disruptions persist.

IEA Data Services

The report also promotes IEA subscription data services, offering trusted, consistent time series for energy markets and emissions, including:

• Monthly Oil Data Service (MODS): Provides detailed supply, demand, trade, and production data.
• World Energy Outlook (WEO): Offers scenario-based analysis of energy futures and their implications.
• Annual and Upstream Emissions Factors: Supports emissions reporting and life-cycle footprint analysis.
• Other Databases: Includes World Energy Statistics and Balances, Energy Prices, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy.

Note to Subscribers

• Extended Forecasts: Due to the ongoing conflict, supply/demand forecasts in the OMR will be extended to 2027.
• Postponed Report: The Market Report - Oil 2026 - Analysis and forecast to 2031 has been postponed.
• UAE Membership: The UAE is included in OPEC aggregates in this report but will be classified under non-OECD in the June report.

Conclusion

The war in the Middle East has significantly disrupted the global oil market, leading to a decline in demand, supply shortages, and record inventory drawdowns. While some regions and countries have adapted through increased production, exports, and demand-saving measures, the market remains undersupplied through the end of 2026. The prolonged deficit and price volatility could have lasting economic implications, particularly for oil-importing emerging economies. The IEA data services offer critical tools for understanding and responding to these challenges.