2018年6月石油市场月报（英文版）-2mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - June 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global oil market for the second half of 2018, focusing on price movements, supply and demand dynamics, economic forecasts, and market structures. It also includes insights into product markets, refining operations, and the tanker market.

Main Points and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

In May 2018, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by 8.5%, reaching $74.11/barrel, its highest monthly value since November 2014.
Year-to-date (Y-t-d), the ORB value was 31.7% higher at $67.48/barrel compared to the same period in 2017.
Dated Brent rose by 7.4%, Dubai by 8.7%, and spot WTI by 5.4% m-o-m.
ICE Brent averaged $77.01/barrel, up 7.3%, while NYMEX WTI averaged $69.98/barrel, up 5.5%.
Y-t-d, ICE Brent rose 30.6% to $70.22/barrel, and NYMEX WTI increased 27.7% to $65.09/barrel.
The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened to $7.02/barrel, its widest since 2015.
Despite rising futures prices, speculative net long positions decreased, with the long-to-short ratio dropping significantly in both markets.
The Dubai market structure deepened into backwardation, while Brent saw a flattening trend and WTI remained in backwardation due to higher US supplies.

World Economy Outlook

Global GDP growth for 2018 is forecast at 3.8%, unchanged from 2017.
US GDP growth is expected at 2.7%, up from 2.3% in 2017.
Japan revised its growth forecast down to 1.2% from 1.7%, while the Euro-zone remains at 2.2%.
China and India maintain growth forecasts of 6.5% and 7.3%, respectively.
Brazil and Russia are expected to remain stable in 2H18, influenced by commodity prices and political developments.
Global economic activity slowed in 1Q18, with a potential recovery in the second half of the year driven by US fiscal stimulus and improved performance in Japan and the Euro-zone.
Emerging economies may see slower growth in the second half due to monetary tightening in the US and financial tightening in China.

World Oil Demand

World oil demand growth in 2017 remained at 1.65 mb/d, reaching 97.20 mb/d.
For 2018, oil demand growth is expected to stay at 1.65 mb/d, averaging 98.85 mb/d.
OECD demand is forecast to grow by 0.40 mb/d, with OECD Americas being the main driver.
Non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.27 mb/d, with China leading the growth in transportation and industrial sectors.
Downside risks include economic slowdown, retail price reforms, and increased natural gas substitution.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2017 was 0.88 mb/d, up slightly to 59.75 mb/d in 2018.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2018 is expected to increase by 2.0 mb/d y-o-y, driven by US, Canada, and Brazil.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are projected to grow by 0.12 mb/d, averaging 6.35 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil production in May 2018 increased by 35 tb/d, averaging 31.87 mb/d.
Non-OPEC supply is expected to show further upside potential due to increased US drilling, new projects in Brazil, and recovery in Canadian upgrading facilities.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed positive performance in May.
US refinery margins reached record highs due to strong domestic gasoline demand and tighter middle distillates and fuel oil markets.
Asia saw a marginal weakening in product markets due to slower jet/kerosene demand and rising inventory levels.
Europe retained gains, supported by top and bottom of the barrel demand.
Product prices in May weighed on refinery margins, preventing further upside.

Tanker Market

The dirty tanker market saw spot freight rates increase by 18% m-o-m.
Clean tanker freight rates remained flat.
Rate gains were relatively modest due to low market returns and high bunker prices.
Port and weather delays contributed to tighter tonnage availability and higher freight rates.

Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks fell to 2,811 mb in April, 26 mb below the five-year average.
Crude stocks showed a slight surplus, while product stocks were in deficit.
Days of forward cover in OECD stocks dropped to 59.1 days, 2.2 days below the five-year average.
US crude inventories continued to pressure WTI prices and support backwardation.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude demand in 2017 was 33.1 mb/d, up 0.7 mb/d from 2016.
OPEC crude demand in 2018 is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from 2017.
The balance of supply and demand remains uncertain, with wide forecast ranges for OPEC crude demand in 2H18.

Conclusion

The oil market in the second half of 2018 faces uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, speculative activity, and supply-demand dynamics. While crude prices have surged, speculative net long positions have decreased, indicating market caution. Global demand is expected to grow at 1.65 mb/d, with non-OPEC supply likely to increase due to US and Brazil production. OPEC's role in maintaining production cuts and cooperation remains crucial, but uncertainties in non-OPEC supply and demand will continue to shape the market outlook.