2018年8月石油市场月报（英文版）-2mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - August 13, 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the global oil market, focusing on crude and product price movements, world economy trends, oil demand and supply, refinery operations, the tanker market, and stock levels. It also outlines the balance of supply and demand for OPEC crude in 2018 and 2019.

Main Points and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to $73.27/b, remaining above $70/b for the third consecutive month.
Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB value rose $19.38, or 39%, to $69.14/b, compared to the same period in 2017.
ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b, marking the first time since November 2014 that it settled above $70/b.
The Brent/WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July.
Speculative net long positions declined in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI.
Dubai market backwardation eased, while Brent moved into contango for the remainder of the year. WTI backwardation increased in the US due to supply tightness at Cushing.

World Economy

Global GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 remains unchanged at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively.
US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.9% and 2.5% for 2018 and 2019.
Euro-zone growth slowed, with forecasts revised down by 0.2 pp to 2.0% for 2018 and 0.1 pp to 1.9% for 2019.
China saw its growth forecast revised up to 6.6% for 2018, while Brazil was revised down to 1.6% for 2018, with a mild rebound expected in 2019.
Japan and India maintained their growth forecasts at 1.2% and 7.3% for 2018, with India projected to grow at 7.4% in 2019.
Russia's GDP growth forecast remains at 1.8% for both years.

World Oil Demand

2018 oil demand is expected to grow by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than previous projections.
2019 oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also 20 tb/d lower than previous estimates.
Total oil demand in 2018 is expected to reach 98.83 mb/d, and in 2019, 100.26 mb/d.
OECD will contribute 0.27 mb/d to demand growth, while non-OECD nations will account for the majority.
Global gasoline demand has shown weakness in 2018, with three out of five months showing year-on-year declines.
Diesel demand in the US has remained strong with positive year-on-year growth, reaching 300 tb/d in May.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 averaged 59.62 mb/d, an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y.
Non-OPEC supply in 2019 is projected to reach 61.75 mb/d, with a 106 tb/d upward revision due to the re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast.
Y-o-y growth was revised up by 34 tb/d, to 2.13 mb/d.
The main growth drivers are the US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia, and Malaysia, while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines.
OPEC NGL production is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC production in July averaged 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

US refining margins recorded solid losses in July due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs.
Strong middle distillate stock builds and record jet fuel output further pressured margins.
Europe saw moderate gains in product markets, supported by firm exports and lower product demand.
Asia experienced strengthening product markets, driven by robust Indian gasoline demand, lower European fuel oil arrivals, and lower crude prices.
Gasoil output in China hit new highs, contributing to the strengthening of Asian markets.
Diesel demand is expected to remain bullish, with demand growth and low global benchmark crude prices supporting tightness in the market.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in July due to weak market trends across all classes.
VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes.
Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat due to limited activity.
Aframax saw mixed freight rates, with average rates going down due to drops in the Caribbean.
Clean tanker freight rates declined due to lower freight costs west of Suez.
The tanker market remained uneventful with limited demand on tonnage.

Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m in June to 2,822 mb.
This is 197 mb below the level seen in June 2017 and 33 mb below the latest five-year average.
OECD commercial stocks remained 251 mb above the January 2014 level.
Days of forward cover fell to 58.8 days, 2.1 days below the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude demand in 2018 is expected to be 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than 2017.
OPEC crude demand in 2019 is forecast to be 32.0 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d lower than 2018.
Global demand is expected to grow by 1.64 mb/d in 2018 and 1.43 mb/d in 2019, with non-OECD countries contributing the majority.

Summary of Key Trends

Crude prices have increased significantly since the end of 2016, with the ORB rising by nearly 70% to $73.27/b.
US oil inventories continued to drain, especially at Cushing, Oklahoma, supporting WTI price gains.
Speculative activity showed a decline in net long positions, especially for ICE Brent.
Global economic growth remains a key driver for oil demand, with non-OECD nations leading the growth.
Diesel demand is expected to increase due to low crude prices and low supply of high-sulphur fuel oil.
Tanker markets faced declining freight rates and limited activity, reflecting weak demand for oil transport.
Supply and demand balance remains uncertain, especially for 2019, due to economic and geopolitical factors.

Summary of Key Charts and Tables

Graph 1: ORB movement shows the increase in the OPEC Reference Basket to $69.14/b y-t-d.
Graph 2: Transatlantic spread shows a significant narrowing from $8.62/b in June to $4.37/b in July.
Table 1-1 outlines the performance of selected crudes and the ORB.
Table 1-2 provides crude futures prices and changes for July.
Table 1-3 shows forward curve data for NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent, and DME Oman.

Conclusion

The oil market in July 2018 showed mixed movements, with WTI leading the charge and Brent facing pressure due to perceived oversupply and trade tensions. Global demand remains strong, with non-OECD countries contributing the most. Supply dynamics are uncertain, especially in 2019, and refinery margins have been affected by supply and demand imbalances. Tanker markets remain weak, and speculative activity has declined, indicating market caution. Overall, the market outlook is positive, driven by economic growth and geopolitical tensions, but uncertainties persist.