20181017-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_28页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (October 17, 2018)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the period up to August 2018 and forecasts for 2019. It covers production, export, import, and price trends for various commodities, including beef, lamb, dairy, pork, and poultry.

Main Points

Export Unit Values

Beef and veal have the highest unit values at $2.36 per pound, driven by demand in Asia.
Lamb and mutton follow with a unit value of $2.28 per pound.
Cheese has a unit value of $1.90 per pound, while eggs are at $1.08 per pound.
Turkey is at $1.02 per pound, with most shipments going to Mexico.
Pork is at $0.99 per pound, influenced by markets in Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.
Broiler exports have the lowest unit value at $0.46 per pound, due to dominance of lower-value dark meats.

Beef/Cattle Outlook

2018 beef production was reduced by 150 million pounds to 26.9 billion pounds, due to fewer steers and heifers slaughtered and lower carcass weights.
2019 beef production is forecasted to increase by 190 million pounds to 27.9 billion pounds, supported by higher placements in feedlots during the second half of 2018 and first half of 2019.
Feeder steer prices for Q4 2018 were raised to $150 - $156 per cwt, while the 2019 forecast was raised to $141 - $152 per cwt.
Beef imports for August 2018 declined by 3.4% to 272 million pounds, with significant drops from Mexico, Uruguay, and Australia, partially offset by increases from Nicaragua and Brazil.
Beef exports for August 2018 increased by 9% to 287 million pounds, with strong growth in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.
Cattle exports for August 2018 rose by 7,507 head to 19,095 head, with most going to Canada. The 2019 forecast for cattle exports was raised by 15,000 head to 195,000 head.
Cattle imports for August 2018 were 119,865 head, an increase of 22,000 head from the previous year. The 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 1.960 million head.

Dairy Outlook

Milk production in August 2018 reached 18.295 billion pounds, a 1.4% increase from August 2017.
Dairy cow slaughter increased in August, with 279,700 head slaughtered, up 5.3% from the previous year.
Dairy exports in August were strong, increasing by 62 million pounds on a milk-fat basis and 484 million pounds on a skim-solids basis.
Domestic use of dairy products rose, with 3.3% growth in July and 2.4% in August on a milk-fat basis.
Ending stocks fell significantly from July to August, with 17.719 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis and 11.162 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis.
USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) was signed but not yet implemented, so its impact on dairy trade is not considered in forecasts.
Dairy product prices for Q4 2018 showed mixed trends: cheddar cheese prices were lowered, dry whey prices were raised, and butter prices increased.
All-milk price forecast for 2018 is $16.35 - $16.45 per cwt, and for 2019 is $16.85 - $17.75 per cwt, an increase of 5 cents at the midpoint.
Domestic use for 2019 is forecasted to increase by 0.6 billion pounds to 217.5 billion pounds, while ending stocks are expected to decrease.

Pork/Hogs Outlook

Hog and pig inventories increased by 3% year-over-year in September 2018, reflecting continued additions to breeding herds.
The breeding herd has been expanding for 31 consecutive quarters, driven by increased pork processing capacity.
New processing facilities in Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa have added 27,300 hogs per day to processing capacity, with a fourth facility expected to open in late 2018.
Pork exports in August 2018 increased by 5%, with Mexico being the largest market.
Hog prices for Q4 2018 and 2019 are expected to be influenced by increased supply and market dynamics.
The 2018 pork import forecast was slightly revised down to 5.6 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis, while the 2019 forecast remains unchanged.

Poultry/Eggs Outlook

Broiler production for 2018 was revised down due to lower prices and hatchery data.
Egg production is expected to increase for the remainder of 2018, with higher prices forecasted for the fourth quarter.
Turkey production in August 2018 was 517 million pounds, a 5% decrease from the previous year, leading to a 30 million pound reduction in the 2018 forecast.
Turkey exports are forecasted to remain at 3.164 billion pounds for 2018 and 3.245 billion pounds for 2019.

Key Information

Export unit values vary significantly across animal protein commodities, with beef and lamb having the highest.
Beef production is expected to increase in 2019 due to higher placements in feedlots, despite a decline in 2018.
Dairy markets show a mix of price trends, with strong export and domestic use growth, leading to reduced ending stocks.
Pork production is expected to rise due to expanded breeding herds and processing capacity, with potential long-term impacts on prices.
Poultry and egg markets experienced mixed results, with reduced turkey production and increased egg output.
Feed prices for corn and soybean meal remain stable, with alfalfa hay prices up slightly in August 2018.
USMCA has not yet been implemented, so its effects on trade are not included in current forecasts.