20151015-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_784kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market conditions as of 14 October 2015, highlighting price movements, company news, and valuation reports. It also includes analyst contact details and key financial metrics for various companies in Asia, India, and other regions.
Key Market Movements
- Brent crude fell by 0.2% to USD49.15/b, while WTI remained unchanged at USD46.64/b.
- Crude oil futures declined due to weak US and Chinese economic data, which kept prices in check despite potential upward pressure from the possibility of a delayed Fed rate increase.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR price was USD6.70/MMBtu, with a slight increase in ULSD and a decrease in RBOB.
Company News
- US oil output is expected to fall by 93,000 bpd from October to November, the largest drop since 2007.
- Shell has moved its drilling rigs from Alaska to Washington following the failure to find commercial hydrocarbons in the Arctic.
- Iran is becoming more attractive for big oil companies due to low costs, even as crude prices slump, assuming sanctions are eased.
Latest Reports
- Icon Offshore has terminated a vessel order with Danish Yachts, receiving MYR13.7m in reimbursement. It may consider further actions for OSV orders if the market remains weak.
- Perisai Petroleum proposes a 10% private placement to raise MYR40m to repay loans. The company is maintaining its SELL rating with an unchanged target price.
- KNM Group has secured a RE EPCC contract in the UK worth £88m (MYR581m), including O&M for a WTE plant, and is maintaining its BUY rating with an unchanged target price.
Valuation Overview
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (14-Oct) | Target Price | Market Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.30 | 4.80 | 240.0 | 85.2 | 27.7 | 48.1 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.57 | 6.00 | 94.7 | 68.1 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.06 | 11.70 | 52.2 | 89.3 | 16.7 | 19.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.22 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 22.76 | 24.00 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 60.00 | 87.00 | 7.7 | 22.9 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 54.50 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.6 | 12.5 | - | 9.3 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
Asia Oil-Service
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (14-Oct) | Target Price | Market Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 29.0 | 26.1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| KNM Group | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | Sell | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.1 | 1.1 | -144.1 | -31.0 | 23.4 | 18.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 2.94 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 21.3 | 18.9 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Key Takeaways
- Crude oil prices have declined due to weak economic data and the possibility of a delayed Fed rate increase.
- US oil production is expected to fall significantly, marking a shift from previous trends.
- Iran is becoming a more attractive destination for oil companies due to low costs.
- Perisai Petroleum is facing challenges, including delays in rig delivery and asset impairment.
- KNM Group is performing well, securing a contract in the UK and maintaining a BUY rating.
- Icon Offshore has terminated a vessel order, signaling potential further actions if the market remains weak.
- Valuation metrics for companies show varying levels of performance, with some companies under SELL and others under BUY ratings.
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