20230910-国金证券-交通运输仓储行业研究_盛航股份拟并表安德福能源发展_内贸集运运价持续环比改善_14页_1mb

Market Overview

The transportation sector's index declined by 18% during the week of September 4-8, underperforming the沪深300 index (down 14%) by 4 percentage points and ranking 25th out of 29 sectors. Key drivers included strong performance in sub-sectors like highways (+0.3%), which led overall gains, while aviation suffered the worst decline (-44%) due to factors such as rising fuel costs and post-pandemic adjustments.

Sector Insights

• Logistics: Consolidation activities were evident, with companies like 盛航股份 acquiring stakes in energy firms (e.g., from 49% to 51% ownership in 安德福能源发展). The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) edged up slightly (+2%环比) but showed year-over-year weakness (-3%).

• Express Delivery: Rapid growth was observed, with national快递业务量 expected to grow about 15% year-over-year based on post-summer data. E-commerce logistics indicators showed robust daily volumes, and the鄂州 airport transfer project enhanced freight connectivity, supporting continued expansion in the sector.

• Aviation: Domestic demand is recovering, with passenger volumes surpassing 2019 levels in some instances. A recent fuel surcharge increase (e.g., adults paying 60元 for short-haul and 110元 for long-haul) addresses higher oil prices, expected to rebound airline earnings as supply-demand imbalances grow. Airways like Spring Airlines and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway are recommended due to strong recovery potential.

• Shipping and Ports: Container运价 indices remained volatile, with the CCFI down -693% year-over-year but small环比 improvements in some routes (e.g., US West bound +22%环比). Opportunities in oil and dry bulk sectors are noted, with companies like 中远海能 potentially benefiting from global economic recovery. Dry散货运价 (BDI) increased +65% year-over-year.

Investment Recommendations

Recommended companies include Spring Airlines, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway, and 宏川智慧 for exposure to growing demand in their respective areas, focusing on recovery trends in passenger traffic and logistics.

Risk Factors

Key risks include slower-than-expected demand recovery from global疫情, persistent oil price increases affecting transportation costs, currency fluctuations impacting dollar-denominated airline expenses, and unforeseen price wars among快递 companies suppressing profits.