2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_First_Review_Under_the_Three_65页_947kb

Summary of Benin's First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the first review of Benin's Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which was approved in June 2010. It includes a staff report, a Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director. The report discusses the mixed performance of the program under the adverse economic conditions of 2010, including the impact of floods and revenue shortfalls, and outlines the requests from the authorities for a waiver of a missed performance criterion and a three-month extension and rephasing of the program.

Main Points

1. Economic Context and Performance

• Economic Recovery: The recovery from the international crisis was slower than expected, with real growth in 2010 estimated at 2.5% compared to the program's projection of 3.2%.
• Inflation and Current Account: Inflation remained subdued at 2.1%, below the WAEMU convergence criterion. The current account deficit narrowed to 7.9% of GDP in 2010 from 11.1% in 2009.
• Flood Impact: Severe floods in September and October 2010 affected two-thirds of the country, causing significant damage to agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy. The floods delayed the program and contributed to the revenue shortfall.
• Revenue Shortfall: Revenue collection in the first half of 2010 fell short of targets by 1.2% of GDP. By the end of the year, the shortfall reached 2.4% of GDP, attributed to floods, strikes, and weak tax collection.

2. Program Implementation and Reforms

• Structural Reforms: Progress on structural reforms was delayed, including the implementation of the Public Procurement Code and the introduction of a personal income tax.
• Tax Reforms: The introduction of the single taxpayer identification number (TIN) was partially implemented, but full coverage will require more time. The ASYCUDA++ system was extended to more customs units, but not completed by the original deadline.
• Customs Reforms: Measures to enhance customs revenue collection included the introduction of a one-stop window at the Port of Cotonou, improved import verification, and stricter controls on transit trade.

3. Policy Discussions and Requests

• Fiscal Targets: The authorities requested a waiver of the missed performance criterion on net domestic financing and a three-month extension of the program, starting with the second review.
• Program Adjustment: The basic primary balance and net domestic financing targets for 2011 were revised—downward for the basic primary balance and upward for net domestic financing—to reflect the economic challenges.
• Fiscal Policy for 2011: The 2011 budget includes a strong revenue drive and reduced public investment to align with the revised targets. The authorities aim to gradually increase tax revenue to 18% of GDP by 2014.

4. Staff Recommendations

• The staff supports the authorities' requests for a waiver and program extension.
• They recommend completion of the first review, citing corrective actions in the second half of 2010 and strong policy commitments for 2011.
• The revised medium-term growth path is set at 5% per annum instead of 6%, reflecting the adverse shocks and delays in reform implementation.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved on June 14, 2010, for SDR 74.28 million (120% of quota).
• Program Review: The first review was initially planned for early October but was postponed due to program slippages.
• Floods and Microfinance Crisis: The floods caused significant damage and humanitarian needs, while the collapse of illegal microfinance institutions (Ponzi schemes) led to revenue losses and limited impact on the financial sector.
• Debt Policy: Benin maintains a restrained external debt policy, with a debt burden of 19% of GDP at end-2010.
• Reforms and Challenges: Structural reforms, particularly in revenue collection and customs administration, are ongoing but delayed. The revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected to grow more slowly due to these challenges.

Conclusion

The staff report concludes that while Benin has faced significant challenges in 2010, including floods and revenue shortfalls, the authorities have demonstrated commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms. The waiver and program extension are supported to allow for a more realistic fiscal path and to address the adverse shocks affecting the economy. The revised medium-term framework reflects a more cautious growth outlook, consistent with the regional trend and the need for sustained revenue mobilization and policy implementation.