2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Guinea_Second_Review_Under_the_Three_97页_1mb

Guinea: IMF Country Report No. 13/192 Summary

Core Content

This report details the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), along with requests for modifications of performance criteria (PCs), waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria, and a financing assurances review for Guinea. It outlines the country's macroeconomic developments, program performance, and future policy directions for 2013.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Developments in 2012

• Real GDP growth was close to 4 percent, despite a slowdown in the mining sector and the closure of the Friguia alumina refinery.
• Inflation declined from 19 percent at end-2011 to 12.8 percent in December 2012.
• International reserves covered 3.1 months of imports by end-2012.
• The exchange rate remained stable, and the market premium disappeared.
• Credit to the private sector slightly declined, while broad money stayed flat.
• Excess liquidity fell considerably, and banks' net foreign assets increased.

Program Performance

• Most of the indicative targets for end-September 2012 and all but one of the performance criteria for end-December 2012 were met.
• The continuous PC on no new nonconcessional external debt was breached due to weak technical capacity and misinterpretation of IMF concessionality methodology.
• The government has taken corrective measures, including establishing a public debt monitoring commission and receiving technical assistance from the European Union (EU).
• Structural reforms have progressed, although some were delayed.

2013 Program Focus

• The 2013 program aims to consolidate macroeconomic stability.
• Growth is expected at 4.5 percent, slightly lower than previously projected due to mining sector slowdown.
• Inflation is targeted to fall to single digits.
• Gross official reserves will remain at around 2.9 months of imports.
• Key reform priorities include:
  • Governance of the mining sector
  • Improving the business climate
  • Public financial management (PFM)
  • Electricity sector reform
  • Agricultural sector improvements

Key Information

Performance Criteria and Waivers

• The PC on nonconcessional external debt was breached due to four loans, including the Kaleta hydroelectricity project.
• The IMF recommends a waiver for the breach, as it has a minor impact on debt sustainability and program implementation.
• A modification of the PC is also proposed to include a window for nonconcessional borrowing equivalent to the amount borrowed under the four loans (GNF 363 million or 5.8 percent of GDP).

Risks to the Program

• Political uncertainty and its effect on reform momentum remain a concern.
• Inflation could rebound if the private sector follows civil service wage increases.
• Delays in the Simandou iron ore project could negatively affect medium-term growth.
• Fiscal targets are vulnerable to international oil price increases due to the absence of an automatic adjustment mechanism.

Structural Reforms

• Tax administration and public financial management reforms are ongoing.
• The new mining code (adopted in 2011) is expected to become operational by the end of 2013, after the implementation of regulatory frameworks.
• The government-owned electricity company (EDG) is under close financial supervision, and a new reform program is planned for end-2013.
• Agricultural reforms are being reviewed with assistance from the World Bank, and a national workshop is planned for October 2013 to assess their effectiveness.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2013 budget was adopted broadly in line with the program.
• There is a revenue shortfall of about 0.4 percent of GDP due to delayed fuel price adjustments.
• The basic balance deficit is projected at 3.3 percent of GDP, slightly higher than the initial target due to reprogramming of investment expenditure.
• Civil service wage increases are a major component of the 2013 budget, accounting for about half of the growth in the wage bill.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The Central Bank of Guinea (BCRG) has adopted a cautious monetary policy despite tightening liquidity.
• The main policy rate was reduced from 22 to 16 percent in February 2013.
• The BCRG continues to implement safeguard assessment recommendations and plans to submit a new central bank act for government approval in the first half of 2013.
• The financial sector is being strengthened through technical assistance and supervision reforms, including the closure of BADAM, a small agricultural bank.

Financing and External Debt

• The 2013 program is expected to be fully financed, with a focus on foreign direct investment and grants/concessional loans.
• The government is seeking to normalize financial relations with commercial creditors, based on the principle of "inter-creditor equity".
• A medium-term action plan for external debt management is to be prepared by October 2013.
• A National Debt Committee will be established by end-2013 to oversee debt policy and medium-term debt management.

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)

• Guinea is finalizing its third PRSP, covering 2013–2015.
• The PRSP III focuses on:
  • Strengthening democracy and the state
  • Accelerating diversified economic growth
  • Increasing employment
  • Reducing regional inequalities
• The strategy was approved by the government on May 2, 2013.
• A donor meeting is planned in the last quarter of 2013 to seek financing for the PRSP action plan.

Staff Recommendations

• Complete the second review under the ECF arrangement.
• Approve a waiver for the breach of the nonconcessional debt PC.
• Modify the nonconcessional debt PC to include a limited borrowing window.
• Complete the financing assurances review.

Supporting Documents

• Letter of Intent
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding
• Joint Staff Advisory Note
• Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
• Informational Annex
• Statement by the IMF Staff Representative
• Press Release
• Statement by the Alternate Executive Director

Conclusion

Guinea has made good progress in implementing the ECF-supported program, with most performance criteria met. The main challenge is the breach of the nonconcessional debt PC, which is being addressed through a waiver and modification. Structural reforms are ongoing, with a focus on governance, PFM, and sectoral improvements. The 2013 program aims to consolidate macroeconomic stability and promote growth, while managing risks from political instability and inflation. The IMF recommends continued cooperation and policy coordination to ensure program success.