2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bangladesh_Staff_Report_for_the_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_121页_1mb

Summary of the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility for Bangladesh

Core Content

The Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Bangladesh outlines the country's macroeconomic developments, structural reforms, and policy outlook. It also includes a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), an Informational Annex, and other supporting documents. The report was prepared by the IMF staff and released in November 2013, following discussions in Dhaka from September 22 to October 7, 2013.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Context

• Bangladesh successfully averted a balance of payments crisis through a combination of monetary and fiscal tightening, supported by the ECF approved in April 2012.
• At the program midpoint, significant macro-stabilization gains were achieved, including a decline in inflation and public debt, and a doubling of international reserves.
• The country's poverty reduction trend continued, with the World Bank projecting a decline in the poverty rate from 31.5% (2010) to 26.5% by 2015.

Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth in FY13 (July 2012–June 2013) was 6%, down from 6.2% in FY12.
• Inflation eased to 7% (y/y) in FY13 from 8.7% in FY12, with nonfood inflation declining steadily.
• The current account recorded a record surplus of 2% of GDP in FY13, driven by favorable export performance and remittance inflows.
• International reserves increased to US$17.2 billion by end-October 2013, providing a reserve cover of 4.6 months of projected imports.

Structural Reforms

• The ECF-supported program achieved 27 structural benchmarks and prior actions, including reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and financial sector supervision.
• Key structural reforms included:
  • Implementation of the new Value Added Tax (VAT) Law.
  • Amendments to the Bank Companies Act.
  • Demutualization of stock exchanges.
  • Strengthening of revenue administration and public enterprise pricing.
• The government focused on improving governance, credit risk management, and internal controls in state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs).

Financial Sector

• SOCBs, which account for a quarter of the banking system, faced deteriorating financial conditions in 2012 but stabilized between March and June 2013.
• Nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios increased due to poor credit decisions, bank frauds, and slower economic activity.
• The financial position of state-owned specialized banks also deteriorated.
• The stock market experienced subdued performance due to political uncertainty, though Bangladesh's relatively closed capital account limited the impact of emerging market volatility.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal policy was expected to continue supporting priority investments and social spending while maintaining macroeconomic stability.
• The budget deficit (excluding grants) was estimated at 4.5% of GDP in FY13, in line with the ECF program.
• Tax revenue increased by 0.4 percentage points of GDP over two years, and the Annual Development Program (ADP) implementation improved to 91% of the initial budget.

Exchange Rate and External Sector

• The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated significantly in late 2012 and early 2013, supported by strong current account performance and capital inflows.
• The REER is assessed to be close to equilibrium, with the garment sector remaining competitive despite higher wages and improved safety standards.
• The current account is projected to narrow but remain in surplus in FY14, with a modest deficit expected from FY15 onwards.
• International reserves are expected to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace, due to foreign direct investment and public borrowing for infrastructure.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Political Uncertainty: The run-up to national elections in January 2014, marked by nationwide strikes (hartals) and protests, is expected to slow GDP growth to 5.5% in FY14.
• Garment Sector Transition: The sector faces higher operating costs due to increased minimum wages and improved safety standards. A potential decline in external demand could affect export growth and the current account.
• Tail Risks: A withdrawal of the EU's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) could significantly impact garment exports, which account for over 80% of total exports. This could lead to a GDP growth decline of up to 1.75 percentage points.
• Economic Spillovers: A slowdown in India and volatility in its currency market are expected to have limited spillovers on Bangladesh, with potential domestic inflation decline due to lower import costs.
• State Bank Financial Health: Continued undercapitalization and nonperforming loans in SOCBs pose risks to financial stability and require recapitalization.

Policy Recommendations

• The program remains on track, with all performance criteria met by end-June 2013.
• Staff recommends the completion of the review and modification of performance criteria for December 2013 to lock in recent reserve improvements.
• A moderate increase in reserve cover is suggested to provide a stronger cushion against short-term shocks.
• Structural reforms should continue to focus on enhancing public financial management, improving the governance of SOCBs, and strengthening social safety nets.
• The government should ensure the effective implementation of labor standards and safety reforms to avoid a GSP withdrawal.

Conclusion

The 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Bangladesh's progress in macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform under the ECF program. However, it also underscores the need for continued policy discipline and reform to address the challenges of political uncertainty and the transition in the garment sector, while safeguarding external and financial stability.