2017年-ECB欧洲央行_The_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_SPF_–_Fourth_Quarter_of_2017_12页_243kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Fourth Quarter of 2017

Core Content Summary

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2017 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding key macroeconomic indicators in the euro area. The survey highlights changes in inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rate expectations, along with assumptions about exchange rates and oil prices.

Main Points

1. Inflation Expectations

• HICP Inflation (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices):
  Forecasters expect HICP inflation to remain unchanged at 1.5%, 1.4%, and 1.6% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. This is consistent with the previous quarter's expectations.

• Inflation Excluding Food and Energy:
  Expectations for this measure of underlying inflation were revised slightly upwards to 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.5% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. The longer-term expectation was also revised upwards to 1.9% (for 2022), from 1.8% in the previous survey.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The probabilities of HICP inflation being below 1% declined for all three years (2017, 2018, 2019).
  • For 2017, the probability of inflation exceeding 2% increased slightly.
  • For 2018 and 2019, the probabilities of inflation in the 1.0–1.4% and 1.5–1.9% ranges increased, respectively.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for longer-term inflation tilted to the right, indicating a slight increase in the likelihood of higher inflation.

• Risk Balance:
  The forecast distribution for longer-term inflation is negatively skewed, suggesting that downside risks still dominate. The mean of the distribution was 0.1 p.p. lower than the average point forecast, reflecting a slight deterioration in the risk balance compared to the previous survey.

2. Real GDP Growth Expectations

• GDP Growth:
  Forecasters expect real GDP growth to be 2.2%, 1.9%, and 1.7% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. This represents upward revisions of 0.3 p.p. for 2017 and 0.1 p.p. for 2018 and 2019.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The probability of GDP growth exceeding 2% in 2017 increased from 43% to 72%.
  • The probability of GDP growth exceeding 1.5% in 2018 increased from 71% to 80%.
  • For 2019, the probability of GDP growth exceeding 1.5% increased from 60% to 66%.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for GDP growth shifted further to the right, indicating increased confidence in growth above the previous expectations.

• Risks:

  • Short-term risks: Broadly balanced, with upside risks including stronger business investment recovery.
  • Longer-term risks: Skewed to the downside, with some concerns about political factors and a potential slowdown in China.

3. Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unemployment Rate:
  Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to decline to 9.1%, 8.6%, and 8.2% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. This represents downward revisions of 0.1 p.p. for 2017 and 0.2 p.p. for 2018 and 2019.

• Longer-term Expectations:
  Longer-term unemployment rate expectations were revised downwards to 7.9%, from 8.1% in the previous survey. This is 0.8 p.p. lower than the 2016 survey and 0.5 p.p. lower than the 2017 survey.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The aggregate probability distribution shifted to the left, reflecting the downward revisions.
  • For the longer term, the mean of the distribution was 0.3 p.p. higher than the average point forecast, indicating some upside risk.

• Link to Growth:
  Forecasters linked the downward revisions in unemployment to the upward revisions in GDP growth, suggesting a positive correlation between growth and employment.

4. Other Variables and Conditioning Assumptions

• Oil Prices (USD-denominated):
  Forecasters expect oil prices to rise to an average of $54 per barrel in 2017, $55 in 2018, and $57 in 2019. This implies a slight increase in oil prices over time.

• USD/EUR Exchange Rate:

  • The exchange rate was 7% higher than in the previous survey.
  • Forecasters expect a gradual strengthening of the USD/EUR exchange rate, with a total increase of around 1% over the next four quarters.
  • The magnitude of appreciation from 2018 to 2019 declined slightly.

• ECB Main Refinancing Rate:
  Forecasters expect the ECB's main refinancing rate to remain at zero throughout 2017 and 2018, before increasing to 0.25% in 2019.

• Labour Cost Growth:
  Labour cost growth is expected to rise to 2.1% by 2019, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous survey.

• Compensation per Employee Growth:
  Annual growth in compensation per employee is expected to be 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.1%, and 2.3% for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022, respectively, indicating a steady upward trend.

Key Information

• The SPF results for the fourth quarter of 2017 are consistent with other surveys, such as Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• Inflation expectations for the short term are unchanged, but longer-term expectations have been revised upwards.
• GDP growth expectations have seen upward revisions for all three years, with greater confidence in growth above the previous forecasts.
• Unemployment expectations have been revised downwards, reflecting improved economic conditions.
• The exchange rate and oil prices are expected to increase gradually, which may affect inflation and growth expectations.
• The ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for the near term.
• The risk balance is downside skewed for longer-term inflation and growth, but upside skewed for unemployment.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2017 SPF results indicate a positive outlook for the euro area economy, with revisions upwards in GDP growth and revisions downwards in unemployment and inflation expectations. While short-term inflation remains stable, longer-term inflation is expected to rise slightly, and the risk balance continues to favor downside risks for growth and inflation. The survey also highlights the impact of exchange rate movements and oil prices on economic expectations, as well as the ongoing effects of structural reforms on the labor market.