IEA-石油2021—分析和预测至2026（英文）-2021.3-167页_11mb

Oil Market Analysis and Forecast (2021-2026)

Core Content

The IEA's Oil 2021 report provides a comprehensive outlook on global oil markets, emphasizing the long-term structural changes driven by the Covid-19 pandemic and the transition to a low-carbon economy. It outlines the rebalancing of oil markets, the slow recovery of demand, and the geopolitical and economic implications of these shifts.

Main Viewpoints

• Oil demand is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels due to long-term structural changes, including the shift to clean energy and behavioral changes.
• Global oil demand is projected to rise to 104.1 mb/d by 2026, an increase of 4.4 mb/d from 2019 levels, but not reaching 2019 levels until 2023.
• Asia Pacific is the main driver of oil demand growth, contributing 90% of the net increase in global demand, with China, India, and other Asian economies leading the way.
• OECD demand remains below pre-pandemic levels in 2026, while non-OECD demand continues to grow.
• Gasoline demand may never return to 2019 levels, while aviation fuels are expected to recover slowly, with online meetings and reduced business travel potentially altering long-term trends.
• Petrochemicals will be a key growth sector, with ethane, LPG, and naphtha accounting for 70% of the projected increase in oil product demand by 2026.
• Global oil supply growth is constrained due to Covid-induced spending cuts and a shift towards clean energy investments, with upstream investment declining significantly in 2020 and only modest recovery in 2021.
• Global oil production capacity is expected to increase by 5 mb/d by 2026, but this is far below the required 10.2 mb/d to meet expected demand growth.
• Middle Eastern producers are expected to provide half of the supply increase, with Iran’s sanctions potentially forcing Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait to operate at record levels.
• Refining capacity is under pressure, with a third rationalisation round underway, requiring 6 mb/d of closures to bring utilisation rates back to above 80%.
• Asia is becoming more dependent on oil imports, with refined products trade shifting to the region, and import dependence rising to 82% by 2026.
• Stronger policies and behavioral changes are necessary to hasten the peak of oil demand, potentially reducing it by 5.6 mb/d by 2026 to meet net-zero targets.
• The transition to clean energy is accelerating, but current policies and industry actions are insufficient to meet 2050 net-zero goals.
• Global economic growth is expected to rebound sharply in 2021-2022, but will average 3.5% from 2023 through 2026, with some permanent economic scars from the pandemic.
• The IEA highlights the need for carbon pricing, renewable development, and energy efficiency measures to support the decarbonisation of key sectors like transport, industry, and power.

Key Information

• Oil demand recovery is uneven, with non-OECD countries driving growth and OECD demand remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
• Global oil stocks are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, but spare capacity will continue to decline.
• The refining sector faces a significant overhang, requiring massive closures to return to efficient levels.
• Covid-19 has caused a permanent shift in travel and work habits, with teleworking and online meetings reducing aviation and business travel demand.
• Energy transitions are crucial, but current efforts are insufficient to meet 2050 net-zero targets.
• Government actions, such as fiscal stimulus and legislative measures, are playing a significant role in shaping the future of oil demand and supply.
• The US and EU are leading the way in climate policy, with the US rejoining the Paris Agreement and the EU setting ambitious GHG reduction targets.
• The IEA warns of potential supply shortages if investment in oil production is not increased, as spare capacity may fall to 2.4 mb/d by 2026.
• The report uses the ICE Brent forward curve as a price assumption for its forecasts.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The oil market is entering a new normal, shaped by post-pandemic recovery and long-term energy transition goals. While demand is expected to recover, it will not return to pre-Covid levels, and supply growth is constrained due to investment cuts and policy shifts. Refining capacity is under pressure, and global oil stocks are expected to normalize. The transition to clean energy is essential for meeting net-zero targets, and stronger policies and behavioral changes will be required to hasten the peak of oil demand and ensure a stable, sustainable market.