国际能源署-石油2023：2028年分析与预测（英）-129页_6mb

IEA Oil 2023 Summary

Demand Outlook:

• Global oil demand peaks for combustible fuels by 2028 at 81.6 mb/d, driven by energy transition (electric vehicles, renewables, efficiency).
• Total oil use reaches 105.7 mb/d by 2028, with Asia (especially China) leading growth.
• Decarbonization will push peak transportation demand earlier: gasoline (2023), diesel (2026), while total transport fuel demand plateaus and declines.

Supply Outlook:

• Non-OPEC+ supply grows 5.9 mb/d to 69.2 mb/d by 2028, with the US (Permian, Eagle Ford) and Brazil (Stabroek block) driving gains.
• OPEC+ maintains 3.8 mb/d spare capacity, but Russia's decline (10% hit) reduces its output.
• Light tight oil maturity leads to slower growth, while production costs rise under climate pressures.

Refining & Trade:

• Refinery capacity expands 4.4 mb/d, but demand growth lags, risking closures. China dominates surplus capacity (3 mb/d).
• Trade shifts: Atlantic Basin loses 2.5 mb/d to Asia, with Russian barrels flowing to India and China.
• Asian demand for petrochemical feedstocks dominates, reshaping trade flows.

Key Drivers & Risks:

• China’s policies (e.g., petrochemical push) and US/China/EU EV policies shape demand.
• Geopolitical risks (Russia, Middle East) and economic uncertainty (high interest rates) could disrupt supply.
• Energy transition requires balancing supply (e.g., CCUS, carbon pricing) while avoiding stranded assets.

Conclusion:
Oil demand is transitioning toward lower-carbon uses despite slowing GDP growth. Supply capacity growth aligns with demand, but refining sector transformation and trade realignment will test market stability.