2023-06-26-IEA-石油2023_2028年分析与预测_127页_6mb

报告摘要

Global oil demand is forecast to peak by 81.6 mb/d in 2028, up from 105.7 mb/d in 2023, reaching 5.9 mb/d growth from 2022.
The peak is driven primarily by petrochemical feedstocks, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ethane, and naphtha accounting for ~50% of incremental demand.
Clean energy policies and vehicle electrification are curbing demand for transport fuels, particularly gasoline.
Supply capacity growth is moderate, with net increases of ~3.8 mb/d, driven mainly by non-OPEC+ countries like the US and Russia. Efficiency gains and climate pressures slow growth.

Global Growth: Cumulative demand increases by 5.9 mb/d (from 105.7 in 2028 to 105.7 in 2028).
By Region: Asia (especially China and India) drives growth, while Europe and North America see declines due to electrification and efficiency. Europe's share dropped from 8% to 10% of global demand.
Product Mix: Transport fuels demand slows; jet fuel is the fastest-growing product. Petchems dominate demand growth, with China leading expansions.
Electric Vehicles: EVs and efficiency contribute to structural declines in gasoline demand.

Global capacity increases by ~3.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing most of the growth (86%).
Russia and Sanctions: Sanctions limit Russian and Iranian output. Total capacity adds above pre-pandemic levels through 2028.
US Leadership: US supply growth continues, driven by light tight oil (LTO). Production capacity grows steadily despite decarbonization pressures.
OPEC+ Role: OPEC+ supply growth slows as spare capacity declines. The alliance maintains production cuts to balance markets.
Americas: Regional supplies expand significantly, with US and Canadian production accounting for 40% of global growth.

Net capacity expansion of 2.5 mb/d by 2028, with China contributing 440 kb/d.
Refiners face challenges balancing demand shifts toward middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks.
Global Balances: Refinery closures have reduced overall capacity, increasing the share of product exports from key regions like China and India.
Demand Shift: Gasoline demand contracts, while middle distillates and petrochemicals offset declines.

Major supply shifts occur due to sanctions and trade realignments. 56% of Russian crude exports are rerouted to the Asia-Pacific region.
The Atlantic Basin surplus grows to 4.5 mb/d by 2028, with tight light-heavy and sweet-sour price spreads.
Trade Patterns: Increased west-east flows of crude and light products create supply-demand mismatches. Asian demand growth requires imports from the Americas and other regions.
Petroleum Products: Product exports from China and India are essential to global supply systems.