美国1989年以来家庭退休储蓄的变化_19页_3mb

Summary of "Changes to Household Retirement Savings Since 1989"

Core Content

This report by Andrew G. Biggs analyzes the evolution of retirement savings in the United States from 1989 to 2016, using data from the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA) and the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). It also incorporates projections from the Social Security Administration's Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT) to assess future retirement income adequacy.

Key Findings

Retirement Savings Trends (1989–2016)

• Overall Increase: Retirement savings increased for all demographic groups, including age, income, race, and education.
• Inflation-Adjusted Dollars: Average retirement savings rose significantly across all age groups:
  • Under 40: Increased by 47% (from $35,095 to $51,614).
  • 40–54: Increased by 51% (from $145,253 to $219,263).
  • 55–69: Increased by 126% (from $198,577 to $448,292).
  • 70 and over: Increased by 332% (from $73,863 to $319,261).
• Savings-to-Earnings Ratio: This also increased for all groups:
  • Under 40: Rose from 63% to 89% of annual earnings.
  • 40–54: Rose by 38%.
  • 55–69: Rose by 20%.
  • 70 and over: Not analyzed due to low earnings.

Educational Attainment

• All Levels Increased: Retirement savings increased for all educational levels:
  • Less than high school: 59% increase.
  • High school diploma: 73% increase.
  • Some college: 92% increase.
  • Bachelor's degree or more: 115% increase.
• Savings-to-Earnings Ratio: Also increased for all educational levels, with the largest relative gains for lower-educated groups.

Income Quintiles

• Lowest Income: Increased by 28% in inflation-adjusted terms (from $11,912 to $15,269).
• Middle Income: Increased by 70% (from $73,364 to $124,463).
• Highest Income: Increased by 83% (from $545,649 to $998,720).
• Savings-to-Earnings Ratio:
  • Lowest income: Rose from 245% to 377%.
  • Middle income: Rose from 250% to 320%.
  • Highest income: Rose from 250% to 300%.

Racial/Ethnic Groups

• All Groups Increased:
  • White: 159% increase (from $122,035 to $316,360).
  • Hispanic or Latino: 133% increase (from $33,181 to $77,323).
  • Black or African American: 107% increase (from $54,346 to $112,547).
  • Other: 254% increase (from $61,109 to $216,308).
• Savings-to-Earnings Ratio:
  • White: Rose from 213% to 454%.
  • Hispanic or Latino: Rose from 97% to 174%.
  • Black or African American: Rose from 183% to 289%.
  • Other: Rose from 133% to 361%.

Social Security Wealth

• Accrued Benefits: Social Security wealth increased significantly from $13.1 trillion in 1996 to $37.9 trillion in 2019.
• Progressive Distribution: Lower-income workers accrue more Social Security benefits relative to their earnings than higher-income workers.
• Wealth Distribution: The lowest wealth quartile held 11% of Social Security wealth but only 1% of retirement plan assets. The wealthiest quartile held 68% of retirement plan assets but only 41% of Social Security wealth.

Impact of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn

• Market Losses: As of early April 2020, the S&P 500 lost 16% of its value.
• Retirement Savings Reduction: For households aged 55–69, retirement savings would decrease by approximately 8.8% and total retirement wealth by 4.4%.
• Long-Term Outlook: Despite the downturn, retirement savings for near-retirees and recent retirees remained higher than in 2016. The Federal Reserve's data shows a 21% nominal increase in retirement savings from 2016 to 2019.

Projections from the MINT Model

• Replacement Rates: The MINT model projects that future retirees will have replacement rates similar to current retirees.
• Median Replacement Rate:
  • Depression-era cohorts (born 1926–35): 111% of preretirement earnings.
  • War-era cohorts (born 1936–45): 121% of preretirement earnings.
  • Early boomers (born 1946–55): 112% of preretirement earnings.
• Below 75% Benchmark:
  • Depression-era: 25% of individuals had replacement rates below 75%.
  • War-era: 21%.
  • Early boomers: 25%.

Main Viewpoints

• Retirement Preparedness: Despite public concerns about a "retirement crisis," data shows that retirement savings have increased across all demographics.
• Role of Social Security: Social Security plays a crucial role in retirement income, especially for lower-income households.
• Misconceptions About Pensions: The shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) plans has not led to a decline in retirement security for most groups.
• Future Outlook: The MINT model suggests that future retirees will have similar replacement rates as current retirees, indicating a stable outlook.

Key Information

• Data Sources: DFA and SCF provide detailed insights into retirement savings, including both DB pension benefits and DC accounts.
• DFA's Advantages: Unlike SCF, DFA includes estimates of accrued benefits under traditional pensions, offering a more comprehensive view.
• SSA's MINT Model: This model is used to project retirement income adequacy and has shown that future retirees are likely to have similar income levels as current retirees.
• Policy Implication: Retirement policy should focus on addressing existing gaps rather than broad expansions of Social Security benefits.

Conclusion

The report challenges the narrative of a widespread retirement crisis, showing that retirement savings have grown for all groups since 1989. Social Security remains a critical component of retirement income, and the MINT model suggests future retirees will have adequate income. The findings suggest that the U.S. retirement system is more robust than commonly perceived, and that the focus should be on improving existing savings rather than making sweeping policy changes.