兰德-_美国退休储蓄法案_的影响-RAND预算模型的初步分析（英）-2025.8_40页_519kb

Summary of "Impacts of the Retirement Savings for Americans Act"

The Retirement Savings for Americans Act (RSAA) establishes a portable, post-tax retirement savings account for U.S. workers not covered by an employer-sponsored plan. Approximately 63 million workers (39% of the workforce) would be eligible, with 42 million (26%) receiving federal matching funds. Under an optimistic scenario, the program could pay for itself in 20 years by reducing eligibility for Medicaid and SSI through increased retirement assets, but its net financial impact is highly sensitive to spend-down rates and crowd-out effects from private plans.

Key findings:

• Coverage and Matches: The program phases out matches based on income relative to the median.
• Fiscal Impacts: RSAA projects net federal costs of $274 billion in the first decade, but long-term savings could offset these through reduced Medicaid/SSI spending.
• Behavioral Uncertainty: Results depend on factors like firm retirement plan abandonment (crowd-out) and retirement asset withdrawal.
• Demographic Effects: Women and racial/ethnic minorities show higher lifetime benefit potential due to lower earnings.

Policy implications include the potential for RSAA to reduce reliance on social programs but also risk higher costs if rapid savings withdrawal or widespread plan abandonment occurs.