AEI-美国1989年以来家庭退休储蓄的变化（英文）-2020.5-19页_3mb

Summary of "Changes to Household Retirement Savings Since 1989"

Core Content

This report by Andrew G. Biggs analyzes the evolution of retirement savings in the United States from 1989 to 2016 and provides projections for future retirees. It challenges the commonly held belief that Americans are facing a significant "retirement crisis" due to the shift from defined benefit (DB) pensions to defined contribution (DC) retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Instead, it presents data showing that retirement savings have increased across all demographic groups, including age, income, race, and education.

Main Points

• Retirement Savings Growth: From 1989 to 2016, household retirement savings increased for every age, income, race, and education group, whether measured in inflation-adjusted dollars or as a percentage of annual earnings.
• Data Sources:
  • The Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA) and Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) are used to measure retirement savings, including both DB pension benefits and DC accounts.
  • The DFA includes accrued benefits from traditional DB pensions, while the SCF provides data on retirement account balances.
• Social Security Wealth: Social Security benefits form a significant part of retirement income, with accrued benefits (referred to as "Social Security wealth") increasing substantially from 1996 to 2019. Lower-income households disproportionately hold Social Security wealth compared to higher-income households.
• Replacement Rates: The SSA's MINT model projects that future retirees will have similar replacement rates (retirement income as a percentage of preretirement earnings) as current retirees, suggesting that retirement income adequacy is not in decline.
• Coronavirus Impact: The report acknowledges the impact of the 2020 economic downturn on retirement savings, particularly for those nearing retirement, but notes that long-term trends suggest overall improvement in retirement readiness.

Key Findings

• All Demographic Groups Improved: Despite claims of a retirement crisis, all groups—low-income, minority, less-educated, and single workers—showed substantial growth in retirement savings.
• Income and Education Correlation: Higher educational attainment correlated with greater increases in retirement savings. For example, households with a bachelor's degree or more saw a 115% increase in savings in real terms.
• Racial Groups: All racial groups, including white, Black, Hispanic, and others, experienced increases in both dollar value and percentage of earnings in retirement savings.
• Age Groups: The largest increase in savings was observed in the 55–69 age group, with a 126% real increase, followed by 40–54 age group (51% increase) and under-40 (47% increase).
• Market Volatility: The 2020 market downturn caused a 10.7% drop in the value of a 60/40 balanced index fund, but the report notes that long-term trends indicate that retirement savings have generally increased since 2016.
• Policy Implications: The report suggests that rather than expanding Social Security benefits broadly, retirement policy should focus on addressing existing gaps in savings adequacy.

Projections and Models

• MINT Model: The SSA's MINT model projects that future retirees will have similar replacement rates as current retirees, with median replacement rates around 111–121% of preretirement earnings.
• Replacement Rate Benchmark: The benchmark of 75% of preretirement earnings is used to assess retirement income adequacy, with the MINT model indicating that less than 25% of retirees have replacement rates below this threshold.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the data on retirement savings and the projections from the MINT model indicate a more positive outlook for retirement preparedness than often reported in the media or public opinion. It emphasizes that while there are concerns, the overall trend shows improvement in retirement savings across all groups. The focus should be on ensuring that current savings levels are sufficient for retirement needs, rather than implementing broad policy changes.