20250302-东证期货-国债期货周度报告_两会期间国债多走强_17页_7mb

国债期货周度报告（2025年03月02日）

一周复盘

本周（0224-0302），国债期货波动幅度较大。周一资金面均衡略紧，短端压力向长端传导，国债期货大跌曲线走陡。周二央行逆回购净回笼，市场通胀预期下降资金面转松，国债期货大幅反弹。周三资金面先松后紧，市场预期央行操作反复，波动大。周四资金由紧转松但股市走强，国债偏弱运行。周五早盘均衡，午后转松且股市走弱，国债期货大幅走强。

截至2月28日，各期限国债期货主连合约结算价较上周末变动分别为+0.018%、-0.065%、-0.050%、-0.420%。

两会期间国债走势展望

资金面转松，股市走弱，国债市场多空博弈加剧，期债波动大，短端强于长端曲线走陡。下周PMI超预期开局偏弱，但两会期间市场走强概率高。预计会后需观察资金状态，政策力度低于预期、资金面持续松动等均为风险因素。

策略建议

1. 两会窗口期国债有望短暂反弹，但调整压力仍在。
2. 关注逢平做陡策略，当前短端TS、TF合约IRR较高可考虑正套。
3. 谨慎关注空头套保，市场调整压力尚未解除。
4. 短端优势IRR高，长端优势在于后续走陡可能和长期久期对冲规模。

风险提示

市场风险偏好快速回升、海外形势扰动增加风险。

原文摘要翻译（不足1000字）

The weekly report on China's Treasury futures highlights significant market fluctuations during February 24- March 2, attributed to tightened money funds initially spilling to long-term bonds. However, a rebound occurred Monday afternoon due to decreased inflation expectations and relaxed liquidity conditions. Despite improved manufacturing PMI data exceeding market expectations (showing stronger demand recovery and input growth), short-term rates remain resilient. The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to bring temporary strength to the market, though risks like policy expectations management and delayed liquidity remains. Key suggested strategies include contango plays, back-to-back trades, and hedging positions given ongoing market volatility.

(Remaining under 1000 characters, translating the core analysis and recommendations in Chinese.)