屋顶太阳能光伏发电_成本和竞争力指标（英文版）_118页_7mb

IRENA Cost and Competitiveness Indicators for Rooftop Solar PV

Core Content Overview

The IRENA Cost and Competitiveness Indicators (IC&CI) for Rooftop Solar PV provide a comprehensive analysis of the economic competitiveness of residential solar PV systems in California and Germany. The indicators are designed to track the cost trends of solar PV and compare them with the effective electricity tariffs that residential users face during periods of solar generation.

Main Points

1. Rooftop Solar PV Competitiveness

• Rooftop solar PV systems are becoming increasingly competitive with grid electricity, especially in California and Germany.
• The cost of solar PV has decreased significantly over the years, with the LCOE (Levelised Cost of Electricity) falling by 45% in California and 66% in Germany between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.

2. Cost Trends

• Global Trends: Between 2010 and 2016, the global weighted average total installed cost and LCOE of utility-scale solar PV projects fell by 65% and 67%, respectively.
• California: Median residential PV system costs dropped by about two-fifths between 2010 and 2016. In 2016, the cost range for systems under 5 kW was USD 1.4 to USD 8.1/W with a median of USD 5/W.
• Germany: The cost range for systems under 5 kW fell from USD 3.2 to USD 6.7/W in 2010 to USD 1.4 to USD 3.3/W in 2016, with a median of USD 1.8/W.

3. LCOE and Electricity Rates

• The LCOE of residential solar PV systems is compared with the effective electricity tariff during periods of solar generation.
• In San Diego, 57% of residential PV systems had an LCOE below the average effective electricity rate in Q2 2016.
• In San Francisco, the median LCOE fell from USD 0.27/kWh in Q1 2010 to USD 0.01/kWh in Q2 2016, a 96% reduction in the gap.
• In Los Angeles, the median LCOE gap over the average effective electricity tariff decreased by 62%.
• In San Bernardino, the median LCOE dropped from USD 0.21/kWh to USD 0.05/kWh, a 77% reduction.
• In Germany, the median LCOE in Q1 2010 was USD 0.45–0.53/kWh, but fell to USD 0.16–0.18/kWh in Q2 2016, a 66% average reduction.
• Munich had the lowest LCOE in Germany due to high irradiation, with a central estimate of USD 0.16/kWh in Q2 2016.

4. Time-of-Use (TOU) Tariffs

• TOU tariffs vary by location, time of use, and consumption level, affecting the effective electricity tariff for solar PV users.
• In California, the effective electricity tariff during solar generation increased in three out of four major metropolitan areas between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.
• TOU schedules in California include E-6 (PG&E), TOU R-1B (LADWP), DR-SES (SDG&E), and TOU-D-T (SCE).
• In Germany, a simpler fixed tariff is applied across all hours of the year, and the federal weighted average price is used to guide policy.

5. Methodology and Components

• The indicators are based on reliable cost and performance data.
• They include:
  1. PV Installed Cost Trends: Analyzed by country and location.
  2. Effective Electricity Tariff: Calculated using weighted average of tariffs during solar generation.
  3. Location-Specific LCOE: Based on local irradiation and installed costs.
• The indicators exclude the impact of support measures, such as investment tax credits, unless net metering is in place with a selling price based on the electricity tariff.

6. Market Structure and Support Policies

• California has a complex and varied tariff structure, which impacts the competitiveness of rooftop solar PV.
• Germany's market is more competitive, with lower installed costs compensating for less sunshine.
• The report highlights the support policies in place, such as net metering, FITs (Feed-in Tariffs), and tax credits, but notes that these are not directly included in the LCOE calculations.

Key Information

Key Markets Covered

• California: Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, San Bernardino.
• Germany: Cologne, Hamburg, Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich.

Key Figures and Trends

• California:
  • LCOE of residential PV systems decreased by 45% between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.
  • In Q2 2016, 57% of San Diego systems had LCOE below the average effective electricity rate.
  • In Los Angeles, 6% of systems had LCOE below the average effective electricity rate.
• Germany:
  • LCOE of residential PV systems decreased by 66% between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.
  • In Q2 2016, the LCOE range in Germany was USD 0.16–0.18/kWh, with the central estimate at USD 0.16/kWh in Munich.

Conclusion

• The IRENA indicators provide a transparent and reliable tool for assessing the competitiveness of rooftop solar PV.
• They highlight the importance of considering the full range of installed costs and effective electricity rates, rather than relying on average values.
• The indicators are intended to inform policy makers and support the design and implementation of solar PV policies, with future extensions planned to the commercial rooftop segment.