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IRENA Cost and Competitiveness Indicators: Rooftop Solar PV Summary

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) presents cost and competitiveness indicators for rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in California and Germany. It highlights the decreasing costs of solar PV and its growing economic viability compared to traditional electricity tariffs.

Main Points

• Solar PV Growth: Solar PV deployment has grown at an annual average compound rate of 44% between 2000 and 2016, increasing from 0.8 GW to 291 GW.
• Cost Reductions: Solar PV module prices have declined by around 80-85% from the end of 2009 to 2016.
• LCOE Trends: Between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016, the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for residential solar PV systems fell by 45% in California and 66% in Germany.
• Competitiveness: In six out of nine German cities, the median LCOE of residential solar PV fell below the average effective electricity tariff. In California, while the average LCOE was higher than the average tariff in some cities, a significant portion of systems still had lower LCOE than the average tariff.
• Time-of-Use (TOU) Rates: California's electricity markets are characterised by complex TOU structures, which influence the effective electricity tariff when solar PV is generating. Germany, in contrast, uses a simpler, fixed tariff structure.
• Cost Components: The report considers installed costs, maintenance, and fuel costs in its LCOE analysis. In California, balance of system (BOS) costs remain higher than in Germany.
• Support Policies: IRENA notes that while support policies are not directly included in the indicators, they are highlighted to provide context for understanding market dynamics.
• Methodology: The indicators are based on reliable cost and performance data, with a focus on median values and weighted averages. They aim to track the competitiveness of solar PV across different markets.

Key Information

IRENA Cost and Competitiveness Indicators (IC&CI)

• Definition: The indicators compare the LCOE of solar PV to effective electricity tariffs.
• Components:
  1. PV Installed Cost Trends: Data on cost trends in different countries and locations.
  2. Effective Electricity Tariff: Calculated based on local retail electricity tariffs, including TOU rates.
  3. Location-Specific LCOE: Based on local irradiation and installed costs.

California Analysis

• LCOE Reduction: The median LCOE of residential solar PV systems decreased by 45% between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.
• Cost Spread: In 2010, California's residential PV system costs ranged from USD 5.2/W to USD 16.4/W, with a median of USD 8.4/W. By 2016, the range narrowed to USD 1.4/W to USD 8.1/W, with a median of USD 5/W.
• Electricity Rates: California uses various TOU schedules (E-6, DR-SES, TOU-D-T), which affect the effective tariff during solar generation.
• Policy Impact: The report notes that without financial support, many residential solar PV systems in California are still economically viable.

Germany Analysis

• LCOE Reduction: The median LCOE for residential solar PV systems fell by 66% between Q1 2010 and Q2 2016.
• Cost Spread: In 2010, the cost range for systems under 5 kW was USD 3.2/W to USD 6.7/W, with a median of USD 4.5/W. By 2016, this narrowed to USD 1.4/W to USD 3.3/W, with a median of USD 1.8/W.
• Tariff Structure: Germany uses a fixed tariff structure, simplifying comparisons.
• Competitiveness: In six German cities, the median LCOE fell below the average effective electricity tariff.

Key Cities Analyzed

Conclusion

The IRENA Cost and Competitiveness Indicators provide a framework to assess the economic viability of rooftop solar PV systems in different markets. They demonstrate the significant cost reductions in solar PV and the growing competitiveness of residential systems, particularly in Germany. The indicators are a valuable tool for policymakers to design and evaluate support policies for solar PV, highlighting the importance of accurate cost data and the nuanced impact of time-of-use pricing structures.