2025-05-13-世界银行-西巴尔干定期经济报告第27号_2025年春季_适应可持续增长（英）_98页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary: Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No. 27 Spring 2025 - Adapting for Sustainable Growth

Overview

Economic Performance: The Western Balkans (WB6) region (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia) experienced resilient GDP growth in 2024, averaging 3.5%. Serbia was the fastest-growing country (4.4%), while North Macedonia saw its highest year-on-year growth (6.9%) since 2009.
Convergence: Growth helped narrow the convergence gap with EU peers in living standards.
Challenges: Uncertainty increased due to global trade tensions, slowing Eurozone growth, and climate change impacts, potentially affecting medium-term prospects.

Labor Markets and Poverty

Employment & Unemployment: Employment increased significantly across WB6, driven by services and public sectors. Unemployment declined in most countries (average 8.6%), but youth unemployment remained elevated (average 24.3%) compared to overall rates.
Participation & Informality: Labor force participation improved, but levels remain low (WB6 average 54.6%), similar to the EU average of 75%. Informality hampers poverty reduction.
Poverty: Poverty declined overall (WB6 average 9.4%), but faster than pre-pandemic rates slowed due to economic fragility. Human capital accumulation and tackling informality are key priorities for further poverty reduction.

Fiscal Pressures

Deficits & Debt: Fiscal deficits widened due to higher spending and faded revenue gains, reaching 2.2% of GDP on average. PPG debt declined in some countries but remained manageable overall, with Montenegro and North Macedonia facing notable increases.
Social Spending: Expansion of public spending on wages, social benefits, and pensions increased fiscal pressure but supports social safety nets.

Inflation and Credit Growth

Inflation: Headline inflation fell significantly (average 3.3% in 2024) but varied across countries. Core inflation remained persistently high, reflecting ongoing wage and labor market pressures.
Credit: Credit growth accelerated, reaching 12.3% year-on-year by December 2024, particularly in corporate and household lending, driven by low interest rates and improving economic conditions.

External Pressures

External Deficit: The current account deficit widened (6.9% of GDP in 2024) mainly due to deteriorated trade balances and weakened external demand from the EU.
Debt & Financing: External PPG debt declined slightly overall but remains stable at historically low levels for some countries like Kosovo and Albania.

Regional Economic Outlook

Growth Projection: 2025 growth is forecast at 3.2% for WB6, down from projected peaks, driven by private consumption and investment. Export-oriented countries face headwinds from subdued EU growth.
Medium-Term: Growth is expected to recover to 3.5% by 2027, contingent on structural reforms and navigating global uncertainty. Inflation should converge towards targets.

Spotlight: Climate Shocks and Green Careers

Climate Impacts: Extreme weather events and the energy transition are changing labor markets, risking 20 million jobs. This creates displacement (brown jobs) and necessitates significant shifts in task demands (shift-in-task jobs).
Vulnerabilities: Males, youth, low-education workers, and regions dependent on fossil fuels face higher risks. Significant skill gaps exist, complicating transitions.
Recommendations: Expand social protection, improve access to education and skills training, reform training delivery systems, strengthen labor market information, enhance labor protection flexibility, and adjust social protection to better respond to shocks like weather events.

Conclusion

The Western Balkans witnessed overall resilient growth in 2024, but face heightened risks from global uncertainty and climate change. Sustained growth and poverty reduction require targeted policies, including structural reforms, investment in green technologies, and modernized social protection systems to navigate current and future challenges.

Key Economic Trends by Country (2024 Highlights)

Albania: ~4.0% GDP growth, declining poverty to 17%.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: ~2.6% growth, widening current account deficit.
Kosovo: Strongest outlook for 2025 (3.8%), persistent FDI inflows.
Montenegro: Fundamentals more prone to volatility, fiscal sustainability remains key.
North Macedonia: Growth projected at 2.6% in 2025, reforms are crucial for medium-term convergence.
Serbia: Record budget revenues €30.6 billion, projected 3.5% growth assuming revised EU demand.