世界银行-西巴尔干定期经济报告第27号_2025年春季_适应可持续增长（英）-2025_97页_3mb

Western Balkans Regional Economic Report No.27 (Spring 2025 Summary):

Overview

GDP growth reached 3.5% in 2024, a slight pickup from 3.4% in 2023, showing convergence towards European peers. Strong domestic demand (consumption and public investment) driven inflation down to 3.3%, allowing real wages to gain. Labor markets tightened, with employment rising but labor force participation low (54.6%), hindering further poverty reduction (11.1% expected in 2025). Fiscal deficits widened (2.2% of GDP), exacerbated by higher public spending and under-executed capital projects. Inflation remained stubbornly high and diverse across countries. Credit growth surged (12.3% y-o-y), raising financial stability concerns. External accounts deteriorated (current account deficit at 6.9% of GDP) due to trade and service export declines. Growth outlook is clouded by heightened external uncertainty and protectionist risks, projected at 3.2% in 2025.

2. Labor markets remain tight

Employment slowed but remained above pre-crisis levels (except North Macedonia). Services and construction drove job growth. Unemployment declined significantly, but youth unemployment remains over 25%. Female labor force participation advanced, reducing the gender gap to 19 percentage points. Average real wages grew strongly (up to 9% in Serbia), exceeding productivity gains. A large segment of the workforce is at risk from green transition job displacement or required significant reskilling.

3. Low labor force participation hinders further poverty reduction

Poverty reduction continued but at a slower pace. Measured inequality (Gini index below 40) contrasts with strong public perception of high inequality. Willingness to pay for poverty reduction is high, but Constraints like low participation (54.6%) block progress. High informality (10-20% of workforce), mismatches in skills/labor market requirements, and limited social support compound poverty.

4. Fiscal pressures are rising again

Fiscal deficits widened due to strong revenue collection but significant recurrent spending increases (average rev/GDP rose to 36.4%, exp/GDP to 38.6%). Public spending surged, particularly wages and social benefits. PPG debt remained moderate overall but varies by country. High government revenues from health/nicotine taxes offer potential for public health and revenue, but rates are generally too low compared to EU standards.

5. Persistent inflationary pressures

Globally and regionally, inflation eased significantly in 2024. Core inflation remained more persistent, particularly in North Macedonia and Serbia. Price pressures resurfaced early in 2025. Central banks eased monetary policies at varying rates. Credit demand across all segments expanded significantly.

6. Credit growth has accelerated, calling for stronger oversight

Credit growth reached its highest level since 2009 (12.3% y-o-y), robust capitalization in banks, and improving profitability. NPLs decreased significantly, suggesting banks have ample buffers. Risk is driven by rapid credit expansion, especially in real estate-hoarding countries.

7. External pressures continue to rise, while debt remains moderate

External accounts deteriorated in 2024 (current account deficit widened). Countries dependent on exports (goods/services) were hit hardest. Net service exports declined. Remittances moderated across most countries. FDI inflows partially financed the current account. External PPG debt increased slightly for most countries, though well below EMDE averages. Currency reserves strengthened significantly (e.g., in Albania, reserves cover >6 months imports).

8. Heightened uncertainty clouds the regional economic outlook

Globally and in the Euro area, growth appears set to slow in 2025. The Western Balkans projected 3.2% growth in 2025, below the EU average and the 2024 performance. Policy uncertainty, climate-related risks, and exacerbated disruptions from global conflicts pose significant threats.

9. Spotlight: From Climate Shocks to Green Careers - Supporting Workforce Transitions

Climate hazards (heat stress, floods, droughts) damage infrastructure, reduce worker productivity, and constrain growth. Green transition policies (carbon pricing, energy efficiency) risk displacing workers in polluting industries and non-brown jobs requiring major task shifts. One in five WB6 workers is assessed as being at risk. Gaps in social protection, training/ALMPs, and labor market information systems (LMIS) are major weaknesses. Recommendations include reforming PES, modernizing TVET, strengthening social protection, enhancing LMIS, and establishing green investment funds to support job transitions.

10. From Stimulus to Sustainability: Key Challenges and Recommendations

Poverty reduction, inclusive growth, fiscal sustainability, inflation management, and climate adaptation are paramount. Structural reforms accelerating private sector development and reducing informality are crucial. Improving social infrastructure and enhancing human capital (especially for youth and women) are key growth enablers. Building robust fiscal frameworks and strengthening surveillance capability are vital for managing uncertainty.