20150825-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_11页_783kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market, focusing on price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports from August 2015. It highlights the impact of China's economic conditions on global oil prices, updates on major oil companies, and evaluations of various oil and gas firms across Asia, India, Malaysia, and others.

Key Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Down 6.1% to USD42.69/b, with a 12.4% weekly and 22.4% monthly decline.
WTI Crude Oil: Down 5.5% to USD38.24/b, with a 9.8% weekly and 21.3% monthly decline.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Down 6.5% to USD42.97/b, with a 12.9% weekly and 20.6% monthly decline.
China Daqing Spot: Down 7.1% to USD37.85/b, with a 12.8% weekly and 24.3% monthly decline.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Down 1.0% to USD2.65/MMBtu, with a 2.9% weekly and 4.5% monthly decline.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down 7.1% to USD7.73/MMBtu, with a 2.8% weekly and 1.9% monthly decline.
Gold: Down 0.5% to USD1,155.11/Oz, with a 3.3% weekly and 5.1% monthly increase.
USD-CNY: Up 0.2% to 6.40, with a 0.1% weekly and 3.1% monthly increase.
DJI: Down 3.6% to 15,871.35, with a 9.5% weekly and 9.7% monthly decline.
S&P 500: Down 3.9% to 1,893.21, with a 10.0% weekly and 9.0% monthly decline.

News Headlines

Oil Falls Further on China Market Woes: Oil prices dropped sharply due to the Chinese equities market decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 1000 points. This highlights the impact of China's economic issues on global oil prices.
BofA Says Collapsing Oil Drags U.S. LNG Exports Down With It: Falling oil prices have reduced the price advantage of U.S. LNG, affecting its export prospects. The completion of Cheniere Energy's export terminal adds to the global supply glut.
CNOOC Appoints New President: Liu Jian was appointed as the new president of CNOOC, dismissing earlier speculation about Wu Guangqi's potential appointment.
Chinese Rig 'Finishes Well' Off Vietnam: A Chinese rig completed drilling in the South China Sea, which had previously sparked protests in Vietnam.
Brent Slides Below $45 as Iran Pledge Worsens Oil-Supply Outlook: Iran's production increase and U.S. drillers' continued activity led to a drop in Brent prices below $45.
China's First LNG Mobile Power Station Comes Online: The new mobile LNG power station in Suzhou City offers cost savings and emission reductions compared to traditional diesel generators.

Analyst Reports

Malaysia Oil & Gas - PETRONAS' 1H15 Report Card: NEUTRAL rating, with potential for reduced dividend payouts if market conditions remain weak.
NewOcean Energy: Reiterate BUY, with 118% upside potential.
Barakah Offshore Petroleum: BUY rating, collaborating with Ocean Installer for a 2-year project-based partnership.
Perisai Petroleum: SELL rating, as 2Q15 results fell below expectations.

Valuation Table

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 24-Aug	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.35	8.30	257.6	110.8	18.5	11.9	6.2	5.2	4.3	0.8	2.4
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	5.14	7.70	91.3	91.7	14.3	10.4	6.1	5.4	5.7	0.8	3.4
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.10	16.80	46.6	92.0	11.8	7.5	3.6	2.9	6.4	0.8	2.9
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	227.7	NR	29.1	17.4	8.2	7.6	4.3	3.9	13.3	1.0	4.3
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	829.6	NR	40.1	58.5	11.1	10.3	9.8	8.6	11.2	1.2	1.2
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	123.0	198.00	3.4	7.5	3.4	5.7	0.8	1.2	11.7	0.4	7.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	818.6	NR	8.8	24.0	18.8	10.7	10.2	7.1	15.2	2.8	1.9
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	772.1	NR	3.9	23.3	19.8	9.7	10.0	7.5	8.8	1.8	2.2
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.02	2.65	0.6	0.2	21.0	21.0	11.6	11.3	12.2	2.6	4.8
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	20.70	24.00	9.6	6.0	22.6	22.4	13.6	13.3	16.7	3.7	3.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.69	11.25	1.5	0.6	17.6	10.4	8.1	7.1	4.4	0.8	0.7
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.17	4.75	0.1	0.1	5.4	4.7	7.5	6.8	11.6	0.6	3.2
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	49.3	87.00	6.2	24.4	8.1	7.0	5.5	5.0	11.4	0.9	5.7
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	240.0	395.00	19.2	56.8	7.9	7.1	11.2	10.7	15.2	2.8	1.9
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	44.8	65.00	2.6	8.4	7.5	8.1	5.5	5.6	14.1	0.6	5.7
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	39,900	92,000	3.4	1.0	8.2	7.8	3.7	3.4	25.1	1.9	8.8
Asian Oil & Gas average	-	-	-	-	-	-	15.0	11.2	1.7	5.7	6.4	1.0	2.8

Analyst Contacts

Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
India: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
Philippines: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Singapore: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn; Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Summary of Main Points

Oil Prices: Global oil prices fell sharply due to economic concerns in China and increased supply from Iran.
LNG Market: U.S. LNG exports are affected by declining oil prices, and the market is experiencing a supply glut.
CNOOC: Appointed Liu Jian as new president, indicating strategic direction and stability.
Chinese Rig: Drilling activities in the South China Sea led to protests in Vietnam.
Analyst Ratings: Various companies received ratings, with some companies like CNOOC, Barakah Offshore, and Yinson receiving BUY, while others like Perisai Petroleum and Thai Oil PCL were SELL.
Valuation Metrics: The document includes key valuation metrics such as PER and EV/EBITDA, weighted by market capitalization, to provide insights into the financial health of companies in the region.

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