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报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 18 July 2014

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market performance and key developments in the region as of 18 July 2014. It includes price movements of major oil and gas benchmarks, news headlines, and the latest reports from various companies. Additionally, it offers insights into the valuation and investment outlook for key players in the sector.

Market Performance

Brent Crude Oil increased by 1.3% overnight, closing at $108.54.
WTI Crude Oil gained 2.0%, closing at $103.19.
Gold rose by 1.5%, closing at $1,319.20.
Dow Jones fell by 0.9%, closing at 16,976.81.
S&P 500 dropped by 1.2%, closing at 1,958.12.
Henry Hub declined by 3.8%, closing at $3.96.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR decreased by 3.8%.

News Highlights

First U.S. condensate cargo to Asia was booked by Japanese trading firm Mitsui, rerouting from the US Gulf to Asia via the Panama Canal.
Major China refiners operated at 79.5% utilization rate on 17 July, up from 77.9% two weeks ago due to Sinopec restarting a crude distillation unit.
China's private wholesalers increased refined oil product inventories by 7.7% in mid-July.
CNPC is considering merging its gas units with Kunlun Energy before Russian gas flows begin.
CNOOC is exploring the construction of an FLNG unit in the South China Sea.
Germany plans to stop developing shale gas within seven years due to water contamination concerns.

Company Reports

Ezion Holdings secured contracts worth USD269m and maintains a BUY rating with a SGD2.70 target price.
Nam Cheong Ltd reiterates BUY with a SGD0.55 target price, citing positive vessel sales and contract win outlook.
UMW Oil & Gas Corporation secured its first JU drilling contract in Myanmar for USD51m and maintains a BUY rating with a MYR4.16 target price.
Sinopec is HOLD due to stretched valuation and no immediate earnings improvement.
Yinson Holdings reiterates BUY with a MYR3.03 target price, indicating no surprises in its results.
Petron Corp is BUY with a PHP16.80 target price, as RMP-2 is nearing completion.

Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 17-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD	90D T/O USDm	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.16	11.50	224.5	83.1	11.1	10.0	5.4	4.9	11.3	1.2	4.0
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.35	6.85	97.5	73.6	9.9	9.3	4.9	4.6	11.7	1.1	4.1
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	13.56	14.34	78.1	83.4	8.9	8.3	3.7	3.4	15.1	1.3	4.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	347.70	443.00	11.0	16.9	4.8	4.6	3.4	3.2	23.6	4.8	4.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	12.32	16.80	2.7	1.6	15.4	7.9	10.3	6.1	6.7	1.2	0.4
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	Buy	6.42	7.05	0.2	0.1	10.4	8.8	9.5	8.4	13.9	1.3	1.6
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	67.75	87.00	9.5	24.7	8.7	8.2	6.5	6.2	13.9	1.2	5.1
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	52.75	65.00	3.3	6.2	11.6	10.3	7.2	6.7	10.0	1.1	4.0
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	110,000	103,000	9.8	1.9	16.5	15.3	10.4	9.6	34.2	5.1	2.7

Key Insights

The oil and gas sector in the region showed mixed performance, with crude oil prices and gold rising, while Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Henry Hub fell.
China saw increased activity in the oil and gas market, with refineries operating at higher utilization and wholesalers increasing inventories.
CNOOC and CNPC are both exploring strategic moves in the gas sector, with CNOOC considering FLNG development and CNPC looking to combine gas units.
Germany plans to phase out shale gas due to environmental concerns.
Ezion Holdings, Nam Cheong Ltd, and UMW Oil & Gas Corporation are showing positive developments with new contracts and strong performance.
Petron Corp is a BUY with RMP-2 nearing completion, suggesting potential for growth.
Valuation analysis indicates that PetroChina and Cairn India are overvalued, while Sinopec and CNOOC are fairly valued or under pressure.

Analysts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA)
Jigar Shah (INDIA)
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA)
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA)
Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES)
Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE)
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND)
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen and Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM)

Conclusion

The oil and gas market in the region experienced mixed performance with crude oil and gold rising, while equities and gas prices fell. China remains a key player with increased utilization rates and inventory growth, and strategic moves by major players like CNPC and CNOOC suggest a shift in the gas sector. Investment outlook varies, with BUY ratings for companies showing positive developments and HOLD or Sell for those facing valuation concerns or market challenges.