2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_C244te_d’Ivoire_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_144页_1mb

CÔTE D'IVOIRE: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 13/367 provides an overview of Côte d'Ivoire's economic performance, policy discussions, and medium-term outlook during the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The report highlights the country's recovery from a period of economic stagnation and political conflict, which peaked during the 2010/11 post-electoral crisis.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Recovery and Performance

• Côte d'Ivoire has experienced strong macroeconomic performance since the end of the 2010/11 crisis.
• Growth rates reached 9.8% in 2012 and were projected at 8.7% in 2013 and 8.2% in 2014, driven by public investment and private sector activity.
• Inflation dropped from 4.9% in 2011 to 1.3% in 2012, and is expected to remain below 3% in the medium term.
• The fiscal deficit narrowed from 5.7% of GDP in 2011 to 3.4% in 2012, and is projected to decline further to 2.3% in 2014.
• The current account deficit is expected to widen due to increased imports of capital goods, though the balance of payments is projected to remain in surplus.

2. Policy Discussions

The IMF identified four key policy themes to support sustained high growth:

• Ensuring Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability: The government needs to continue improving revenue collection and reducing current spending to maintain fiscal space.
• Reducing Financial Sector Vulnerabilities and Fostering Financial Deepening: Strengthening the financial system is critical to support private sector development.
• Maintaining External Stability: Côte d'Ivoire must manage its external debt and maintain a stable exchange rate under the WAEMU peg to the euro.
• Enhancing Governance: Institutional reforms are needed to improve transparency, accountability, and the business environment.

3. Program Issues and Performance

• The fourth review under the ECF was completed, and the program limit on new nonconcessional external debt was increased to allow for Eurobond issuance of US$500 million.
• The review completion would result in SDR 48.78 million disbursement under the ECF.
• While quantitative performance criteria were met by June 2013, some structural benchmarks were delayed or missed, indicating the need for continued reform efforts.

4. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• The medium-term growth outlook is positive, with growth projected at around 8% through 2015, gradually declining to 7% over the medium term.
• Upside risks include higher-than-expected FDI and stronger private investment, which could enhance growth.
• Downside risks include insufficient private investment, lack of political reconciliation, public discontent over wages, and external shocks such as higher financing costs, reduced FDI, and adverse weather conditions.

5. Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction

• The NDP aims to boost growth and reduce poverty, with a focus on inclusive development.
• Poverty has increased significantly since the late 1970s, with the poverty rate at 49% in 2011, according to the authorities.
• The 2013 Human Development Report estimates that 61.5% of the population lives in multidimensional poverty.
• Key measures to reduce poverty include reforms in the cocoa sector, minimum price guarantees for cotton and cashew, and pro-poor spending in health and education.

6. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM)

Conclusion

The IMF supports the completion of the fourth review under the ECF and the increase in the program's debt limit to facilitate Eurobond issuance. While growth has been strong, sustained reform efforts are necessary to maintain this trajectory. The government's ambitious growth projections are seen as more optimistic than the IMF's, but the need for continued fiscal discipline, financial sector reform, and governance improvements remains central to achieving long-term economic stability and inclusive growth.