IMF国际货币组织全球-Cameroon_Fourth-Review-under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Requests-for-Waivers-of-Nonobservance-of-Performance-Criteria-and-Modification-of-Performance-Criteria_98页_1mb

Cameroon: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content Overview

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Cameroon on July 17, 2019, and approved the disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$76.2 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 372.6 million (about US$514.5 million). This disbursement was made possible by the waiver of non-observation of two performance criteria (external arrears accumulation and net BEAC financing ceiling) due to corrective actions taken by the Cameroonian authorities.

Cameroon's three-year ECF arrangement, approved in June 2017, aims to support the country in restoring external and fiscal sustainability and laying the groundwork for sustainable, inclusive, and private sector-led growth.

Key Outcomes and Recommendations

Program Performance

• Improvement from previous year: Most end-December 2018 targets were met, and structural reforms are advancing.
• Performance criteria: All but two were met with large margins. The ceiling on net BEAC financing was missed by 0.5% of GDP, and the continuous PC on external arrears accumulation was temporarily breached but resolved by April 2019.
• Indicative targets: All were met except for the indicative ceiling on SNH interventions, which was exceeded by 0.2% of GDP.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Continue fiscal consolidation: Through reductions in tax exemptions, improved tax and customs administration, and enhanced investment efficiency.
• Enhance fiscal discipline: Reduce reliance on exceptional spending procedures and address cash management challenges.
• Maintain debt sustainability: Carefully prioritize foreign-financed investment and reduce fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• Support regional reforms: Strict implementation of the new foreign exchange regulation is essential for the CEMAC regional buffer.
• Improve governance and business climate: Accelerate financial sector reforms, strengthen EITI compliance, and enhance AML/CFT frameworks to support private sector development and attract foreign investment.

Economic Context and Developments

Growth and Fiscal Developments

• Growth rebounded in 2018 to 4%, driven by stronger-than-anticipated oil and gas production and CAN-related projects.
• Non-oil primary balance improved by 3.6% of GDP since 2016, supported by increased non-oil revenue and spending consolidation.
• Overall fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.5% of GDP in 2018 from 4.9% in 2017, slightly above projections.

Current Account and External Sector

• Current account deficit widened to 3.7% of GDP in 2018 from 2.7% in 2017 due to increased imports and reduced non-oil exports.
• BEAC net foreign assets (NFA) accumulated faster than expected, reaching CFAF 158 billion at end-2018 and CFAF 35 billion in Q1-2019.
• Total public debt increased to 39.3% of GDP in 2018, mainly due to valuation effects and faster project implementation.

Monetary and Financial Sector

• Monetary aggregates grew significantly in 2018, with broad money and deposits nearly doubling to just under 10%.
• Credit to the economy accelerated to 7.2% annual growth in 2018.
• Monetary growth slowed in Q1-2019 due to slower economic activity.

Risks and Outlook

Short-Term Risks

• Security challenges in the North, North-West, and South-West regions continue to impact non-oil activity and tax collection.
• Political uncertainty ahead of the Fall 2019 elections may affect fiscal discipline and economic growth.
• Economic activity in crisis-affected areas has declined, impacting small and large businesses and tax revenues.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth is projected to rise to 4.2% in 2019 and 5–5.5% in the medium term, driven by the completion of CAN projects and new transport and energy initiatives.
• Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue through 2020, with the CEMAC reference fiscal balance projected to reach 1.5% of GDP.
• Current account balance is expected to stabilize around 3% of GDP in 2019 as imports normalize and non-oil exports increase.

Structural Reforms and Implementation

Structural Reforms

• Five out of 11 structural benchmarks were completed on time by end-May 2019.
• Three benchmarks were delayed, including the recording of existing movable collateral and the decision on the SME bank business model, which are expected to be completed in July and September, respectively, with technical assistance.

Key Reforms

• Treasury Single Account (TSA) reform: Ongoing, with challenges in cash management.
• Fuel pricing and subsidies: Reforms are being implemented to reduce reliance on subsidies and improve financial viability of public enterprises.
• Tax administration: Enhanced through better taxpayer segmentation and recovery of tax arrears.
• Foreign exchange regulation: Strict enforcement is crucial for repatriating foreign exchange and supporting regional financial stability.

Regional and Institutional Support

• The CEMAC regional strategy is supported by Cameroon's leadership in rebuilding fiscal and external buffers.
• Regional institutions (CEMAC Commission, BEAC, African Development Bank, World Bank) are involved in policy discussions and reform implementation.
• The IMF's support is contingent on continued adherence to the ECF program and regional reforms.

Conclusion

The IMF's review highlights Cameroon's progress in fiscal and structural reforms, while emphasizing the need for continued discipline in managing public finances and addressing external and domestic risks. The disbursement of SDR 55.2 million underscores the Fund's confidence in Cameroon's ability to meet its program targets and maintain debt sustainability. The regional collaboration and institutional support are critical for the long-term success of the ECF-supported program.