2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jamaica_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_72页_1008kb

Summary of Jamaica's First Review Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the first review of Jamaica's Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the request for modifying performance criteria. The IMF Executive Board approved the arrangement on May 1, 2013, for a four-year period with an amount of SDR 615.38 million (225% of quota), with the first purchase at 50% of quota. The review was conducted in August 2013, with the Staff Report finalized on September 16, 2013, and the Executive Summary dated September 30, 2013.

Main Elements of the Program Review

• Economic Developments:

  • Growth remained anemic following Hurricane Sandy and a subsequent drought.
  • Real GDP declined by 0.7% in 2012/13, below the initial estimate of 0.2%.
  • Tourism arrivals increased slightly, but real tourism expenditure fell by about 5%.
  • Unemployment rose to 16.3% in April 2013 due to a labor force expansion.
  • Inflation increased to 9.7% (y-o-y) in July 2013, partly due to exchange rate depreciation.
  • The Jamaican dollar depreciated by 14% (y-o-y) by end-August 2013.

• Debt and Financial System:

  • Public debt remained at a high level, at 146% of GDP.
  • The National Debt Exchange (NDX) had a moderate impact on the financial system, with some capital losses and a reduction in interest income.
  • The NDX was similar to the January 2010 debt exchange (JDX), with high participation (99%) and limited impact on financial sector stability.
  • Financial sector indicators remained strong, and most institutions met the minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR).

• Budget Execution:

  • The 2013/14 budget targets a central government primary surplus of 7.5% of GDP.
  • Budget execution through end-June 2013 was prudent, with all quantitative targets met.
  • The primary balance, tax revenues, and social spending targets were achieved.
  • The public sector balance improved, and debt arrears were reduced.

• Structural Reforms:

  • All structural benchmarks through end-August 2013 were completed on schedule.
  • The government introduced a 5-year public sector investment program and a 2013/14 budget aligned with the program.
  • The Revenue Administration Act was amended to allow for mandatory e-filing.
  • The Large Taxpayer Office was expanded to 120 staff to improve tax collection.
  • A conceptual framework for a fiscal rule was presented, aiming to limit fiscal deficits to 60% of GDP by 2025/26.

Key Views and Information

• Program Completion: The staff recommends completing the first review under the EFF based on the authorities' performance and updated policy intentions.
• Challenges and Risks:
  • Risks to the program include external shocks, delayed growth recovery, budget financing shortfalls, and policy slippage.
  • The high public debt burden necessitates continued vigilance in debt management.
  • The original plan to divest Clarendon Alumina Production (CAP) by the end of 2013 was abandoned due to lack of buyers. Instead, CAP secured a credit line from Noble Resources Inc. to cover arrears and future losses.
• Fiscal and Structural Reforms:
  • The fiscal rule is to be legislated before the end of the 2013/14 budget year.
  • A comprehensive tax reform is being pursued with the support of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and a dedicated working group.
  • The fiscal rule will include an escape clause to manage major adverse shocks while maintaining debt reduction goals.

Document Structure

• Executive Summary: Outlines the main findings and recommendations.
• Background and Recent Developments: Provides context on economic performance, debt exchange, and financial system impact.
• Performance Under the Program: Details the achievement of quantitative targets and structural benchmarks.
• Policy Discussions: Focuses on the implementation of the next round of reforms and modifications to the program.
• Appendices:
  • I. Letter of Intent: Contains commitments by the Jamaican authorities.
  • Attachment 1: Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies.
  • Attachment 2: Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Supporting Data

• Figures: Include trends in real GDP, real visitors expenditure, and other economic indicators.
• Tables:
  • Table 1: Summary of Central Government Operations (in percent of GDP).
  • Table 2: Program Monitoring—Quantitative Performance Criteria under the EFF.
• Boxes:
  • Box 1: Impact of the Debt Exchange on the Financial System.
  • Box 2: The Fiscal Rule.

Conclusion

The program remains on track with the achievement of all quantitative targets and structural benchmarks. However, significant risks persist, including external shocks and potential delays in the implementation of reforms. The authorities are committed to continuing fiscal reforms and tax restructuring to ensure long-term sustainability and stability.