2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_C244te_d’Ivoire_Second_Review_Under_the_Three_99页_1mb

Côte d'Ivoire: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Summary

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the second review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the request for modification of performance criteria, and the financing assurances review for Côte d'Ivoire. It includes the staff report, informational annex, joint debt sustainability analysis (DSA), press release, and statement by the Executive Director. The report was finalized on November 15, 2012, following discussions with Côte d'Ivoire's officials from September 19 to October 3, 2012.

Key Information

• Socio-Political Context:

  • The socio-political situation has improved, with all key institutions operational.
  • National reconciliation progress remains limited.
  • Security has deteriorated due to attacks on military and civilian targets, prompting the establishment of a National Security Council.
  • The economy has rebounded more strongly than expected in 2012, with GDP growth at 8.6%, and inflation expected to remain below 2%.

• Economic Developments and Outlook:

  • Economic activity rebounded sharply in 2012 after a contraction in 2011.
  • A current account deficit is projected for 2012 due to increased imports and lower export revenues.
  • Public investment has increased, which is expected to stimulate private investment.
  • The government expects real GDP growth of 9% in 2013 and 10% in the medium term, driven by both public and private investment.

• Structural Reforms:

  • Reforms in the public pension system and cocoa sector were completed.
  • Progress was made in debt management and public bank restructuring.
  • The energy sector reform lagged behind targets, with delayed implementation.
  • The government plans to adopt an automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products by mid-November 2012 and implement it by end-March 2013.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The fiscal deficit for 2012 is expected to decline slightly from 4.4% to 4.3% of GDP.
  • Revenue exceeded targets by 1.1% of GDP, driven by improved corporate income tax and oil revenue.
  • Grants are expected to increase by 1.3% of GDP in 2012, with additional support from the French debt-for-development swap (C2D).
  • Current expenditure is being controlled to accommodate higher investment spending, with a particular focus on wage bill and subsidies.
  • Electricity subsidies increased due to reduced hydropower generation and higher fuel oil costs.

Main Points and Recommendations

• Program Performance:

  • Broadly satisfactory, with all performance criteria met by end-June 2012.
  • The energy sector reform needs acceleration to meet program targets.

• Performance Criteria Modification:

  • A minor modification of end-December 2012 performance criteria is requested.
  • New performance criteria for end-June 2013 are proposed.
  • A new small nonconcessional borrowing window (0.39% of GDP) and an increase in an existing regional development bank window (0.18% of GDP) are requested.

• Financing and Risks:

  • The fiscal deficit is expected to rise to 3.7% of GDP in 2014-15 to support higher capital spending.
  • Risks include a potential slow response from the private sector, which could affect growth.
  • The program is deemed manageable, with the main risk being private sector participation.

• Debt Sustainability:

  • Côte d'Ivoire reached the enhanced HIPC completion point in June 2012, leading to a total debt reduction of $7.7 billion in present value terms.
  • Debt relief from the Paris Club, multilateral creditors, and enhanced HIPC has significantly reduced the external debt stock.

Documents Included

• Staff Report
• Informational Annex
• Joint Debt Sustainability Analysis (IMF & World Bank)
• Press Release on Executive Board Discussion
• Statement by the Executive Director

Additional Notes

• The Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) are included in the staff report.
• The policy of publication allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.
• Public access to the report is available through the IMF's Publication Services.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators, 2010-17
• Table 2: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2010-17 (in billions of CFA and percent of GDP)
• Figure 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2008-13
• Figure 2: Macroeconomic Development and Outlook, 2008-13 (percent of GDP)
• Box 1: Authorities’ Medium-Term Outlook, 2012-15
• Text Table 1: Fiscal Operations, 2012–13 (percent of GDP)

Summary of Fiscal Projections

Conclusion

The staff recommends the completion of the second review, modification of performance criteria for end-December 2012, and the establishment of new criteria for end-June 2013. The financing assurances review is also recommended. The overall economic outlook is positive, with growth expected to remain strong in 2013 and beyond, supported by improved public investment and a more favorable business environment.