2019-11-13_DTZ戴德梁行_Investment_Q4_2018_Bay_Area_2页_350kb
报告摘要
Bay Area Investment Q4 2018 Summary
Core Content
The Bay Area investment market in Q4 2018 demonstrated strong performance and continued growth, driven by robust economic indicators and active real estate transactions across various property types. The region's economy remains resilient, with significant job creation and a declining unemployment rate, reflecting a healthy labor market.
Key Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Q4 17 | Q4 18 | 12-Month Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY AREA MSA Employment* | 4,057k | 4,157k | ▲ |
| BAY AREA MSA Unemployment* | 2.8% | 2.6% | ▼ |
| U.S. Unemployment | 4.1% | 3.7% | ▼ |
| U.S. GDP** | 2.8% | 3.5% | ▲ |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury | 2.41 | 2.68 | ▲ |
*Q4 18 data based on the average of October and November values
**Q4 18 data based on Q3 values
Market Performance
- Total Dollar Volume: $7.223 billion in Q4 2018, significantly higher than the three-year quarterly average of $5.9 billion.
- Total Properties Sold: 106 properties.
- Average Cap Rate: 4.5%, down 150 basis points from the previous year.
- Total Square Feet (Excluding Multifamily): 10.6 million.
- Total Units (Multifamily): 4,691 units.
Sector Breakdown
- Office: Dominated the market with 51% of total investment activity, contributing $3.7 billion in volume and an average price of $686.33 per square foot.
- Multifamily: Second largest component, accounting for 24% of the total with $1.7 billion in volume and an average price of $365,587 per unit.
- Retail: Contributed $1.1 billion in volume, with an average price of $428.17 per square foot.
- Industrial: Accounted for $772 million in volume, with an average price of $281.17 per square foot.
Top Transactions
| Property Name | Type | Buyer | Seller | Total SF/Units | Purchase Price | Price/Unit ($ PSF) | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-2091 Stierlin Ct | Office | Alphabet | HCP | 727,000 | $1,000,000,000 | $1,376 | Silicon Valley |
| Stanford Research Park | Office | Sand Hill Property Company | HPE | 546,000 | $380,000,000 | $696 | Silicon Valley |
| The Ferry Building | Office | Hudson Pacific Properties / Allianz Real Estate | Blackstone | 240,000 | $292,000,000 | $1,218 | San Francisco |
| Owens-Brockway | Industrial | Blackstone | Gramercy | 607,000 | $70,000,000 | $115 | North Bay |
| Chesapeake Commons | Industrial | Kilroy Realty | 253,000 | $160,300,000 | $633 | Silicon Valley | |
| Broadway Plaza* | Retail | Heitman | Northwestern Mutual | 714,000 | $420,000,000 | $1,176 | East Bay |
| Westfield San Francisco | Retail | Brookfield AM** | Forest City | 609,000 | $332,200,000 | $545 | San Francisco |
| Bayside Village | Multi-Family | Brookfield AM** | Forest City | 862 | $280,600,000 | $325,578 | San Francisco |
| The Uptown | Multi-Family | Brookfield AM** | Forest City | 665 | $134,500,000 | $202,215 | East Bay |
*Partial Interest Transfer (50.0%)
**Brookfield AM acquisition of Forest City assets were part of an entity level sale, purchase prices represent allocated prices
Outlook
- Investor Interest: Domestic and international investors are showing increased interest in the Bay Area due to its strong market fundamentals.
- Market Trends: Core downtown office and multifamily markets are expected to transact at a premium, while value-add opportunities exist in suburban areas.
- Vacancy Rates: Record low vacancies across all property types are expected to continue driving up prices.
- Supply Constraints: A lack of supply in the multifamily sector is placing upward pressure on pricing.
Contact Information
For more information, contact:
Jason Karbelk, Senior Analyst
Tel: +1 415 568 3422
Email: jason.karbelk@cushwake.com
About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm with a presence in approximately 70 countries and 400 offices. It has 48,000 employees and reported $6.9 billion in revenue in 2017. The firm provides services including property management, leasing, capital markets, valuation, and more. For more details, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter.
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