2019-11-13_DTZ戴德梁行_Multi-Family_Spring_2018_San_Diego_4页_865kb

报告摘要

San Diego Multi-Family Market Summary - Spring 2018

Core Content Overview

The San Diego multi-family real estate market in Spring 2018 reflects a mix of economic growth and market dynamics. The report provides insights into employment trends, rental rates, vacancy rates, and investment activity, highlighting the performance of different submarkets and the key players in the investment space.

Economic Indicators

San Diego Employment: Increased by 1.9% year-over-year through February 2018, reaching 1.46 million jobs.
Unemployment Rate: Dropped by 90 basis points to 3.5%, which is 250 basis points below the 28-year average of 6%.
U.S. Unemployment: Decreased to 4.1%, showing a national trend of lower unemployment.

Market Indicators

Indicator	Mar-17	Mar-18	12-Month Forecast
Vacancy	2.22%	4.08%	▼
Asking Rent	$1,748	$1,887	▲
Units Surveyed	131,835	133,785	▲
Net Absorption	922	731	▲

Vacancy Rate: Rose to 4.08% in Q1 2018, driven by the addition of 1,683 new units from seven completed projects.
Asking Rent: Increased by 8.0% year-over-year, reaching $1,887 per month.
Net Absorption: Absorbed 731 units between September 2017 and March 2018, indicating strong demand despite higher vacancy rates.

Submarket Vacancy Rates (March 2018)

East County: 2.57%
Highway 78 Corridor: 2.83%
Interstate 15 Corridor: 2.87%
San Diego Central: 6.38%
North County Coastal: 4.26%
South County: 3.54%
Bedroom Category Vacancy:
- Four-bedroom apartments: 1.32%
- One-bedroom apartments: 4.35%
- Two-bedroom apartments: 3.68%
- Three-bedroom apartments: 3.77%
- Studio apartments: 7.98%

Investment Trends

Sales Volume: The multi-family investment market sales volume for properties over $5 million reached $2.4 billion in 2017, with a slight 3.1% decrease in Q1 2018 to $136.8 million.
Private Investors: Dominated the market as leading buyers for the past five years, and this trend is expected to continue.
Cap Rate: The average cap rate in San Diego was below the 16-year average of 5.6% in 2017.
Loan Maturity: $1.3 billion in multi-family loans will mature in 2019, indicating potential refinancing activity.

Interest Rates

U.S. Economic Forecast: Interest rates are projected to slowly increase over the next two years, which may impact investment decisions and financing options.

Multi-Family Sales Transaction Volume (Last 12 Months)

Submarket	Properties Sold	Total Units	Total Sales Volume	Avg Price Per Unit	Avg Cap Rate	Avg Price Per SF	Total Land in Acres	Avg Days on Market
Highway 78 Corridor	58	3,413	$752,130,400	$220,372	4.7%	$252	172	136
Interstate 15 Corridor	6	589	$226,829,500	$385,110	5.3%	$347	37	101
North County Coastal	13	359	$179,442,500	$499,840	3.7%	$468	15	129
San Diego Central	218	4,281	$1,196,372,197	$279,461	4.3%	$260	104	105
Downtown	7	466	$113,011,596	$242,514	4.5%	$371	2	111
East County	44	2,088	$580,959,144	$278,237	4.9%	$315	73	131
South County	45	830	$140,640,119	$169,446	4.5%	$227	28	105
San Diego County	391	12,026	$3,189,385,456	$265,208	4.4%	$280	431	113

Key Sale Transactions (Last 12 Months)

Project	Buyer / Seller	# of Units	Sale Price	Price Per Unit	Price Per SF	Cap Rate	Transaction Date	Submarket
Pacific Ridge	American Assets Trust / Carmel Partners	533	$232,000,000	$435,272	$374	4.3%	May 2017	San Diego Central
Avion at Spectrum	Heitman, LLC / Prime Group	448	$139,975,000	$312,500	$332	5.3%	October 2017	San Diego Central
Preserve at Melrose Apartments	Trammel Crow Residential Company / MG Properties Group	410	$134,000,000	$326,829	$332	4.7%	June 2017	Highway 78 Corridor
Waterleaf Apartment Homes	MG Properties Group / TruAmerica & Investcorp	456	$117,500,000	$257,675	$294	4.8%	November 2017	Highway 78 Corridor
Solana at Grand	The Allstate Corporation & TruAmerica / Conrad Prebys Trust	519	$90,000,000	$173,410	$220	-	July 2017	Highway 78 Corridor

Key Insights

The San Diego multi-family market has seen steady job growth and a decline in unemployment, indicating a strong economy.
Rental rates have increased, with newer units commanding higher rents.
Vacancy rates have risen, particularly in San Diego Central, but most submarkets remain below the 5% threshold, suggesting a landlord's market.
Private high net worth investors continue to dominate the multi-family investment market.
Loan maturity in 2019 is a significant factor for potential refinancing and market activity.
Interest rates are expected to rise, affecting investment and financing strategies.
The market remains attractive to foreign buyers, especially those from China, Europe, and Latin America, due to its coastal and warm climate appeal.

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