2019-06-27_DTZ戴德梁行_Multifamily_Q12019_Bay_Area_4页_440kb

报告摘要

Bay Area Multifamily Market Q1 2019 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Bay Area multifamily market in the first quarter of 2019 showed signs of continued improvement, with strong rent growth, positive absorption, and ongoing construction activity. Despite a slight slowdown in sales volume compared to 2018, the market remained resilient with low vacancy rates and steady demand.

Key Market Indicators

Indicator	Q1 2018	Q1 2019	12-Month Forecast
Overall Vacancy Rate	4.0%	3.9%	▼
Net Absorption (Units)	2,209	1,397	▲
Units Under Construction	25,000	35,700	▲
Average Asking Rent	$2,691	$2,746	▲

Vacancy rates remained low at 3.9%, with San Francisco County recording the largest year-over-year (YOY) decrease from 4.6% to 4.3%.
Sonoma County had the highest increase in vacancy, rising by 100 bps (bps) to 3.7%, due to new projects not fully leasing.
Net absorption was 1,397 units, with Santa Clara County and East Bay being the top performers, absorbing 476 and 424 units, respectively.
Average asking rent increased by 2.0% YOY to $2,746 per unit, with San Mateo County and Alameda County showing the largest YOY rent increases at 4.8% and 3.7%, respectively.
San Francisco County continued to have the highest asking rent at $3,481 per unit.

Economic Trends

Bay Area employment increased by 92,600 jobs YOY, showing a positive trend.
Unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.1% from 2.9%, but still below the national average.
U.S. unemployment decreased to 3.8%, reflecting national economic improvement.

Sales and Cap Rates

Sales volume slowed significantly to $754 million in Q1 2019, the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2017, despite a yearly average of $1.3 billion.
Cap rates remained below the 10-year average of 5.2%, with the Bay Area overall cap rate at 4.7%.
Cap rates and interest rates were both below historical averages, and the historical average cap rate spread of 2.3% was not reached.

Key Sales Transactions

Property Name	City	Units	Avg SF	Sale Price	Price/Unit	Price/SF	Class	Buyer	Seller
Metro Six55 Apartments	Hayward	188	898	$70,600,000	$375,532	$418	B	Prime Group	Jackson Square
Vineyard Gardens Santa Rosa	Santa Rosa	180	747	$49,400,000	$274,444	$366	B	Angelo Gordon, Glencrest Realty Group	St. Regis Properties
Terra Martinez	Martinez	168	796	$47,500,000	$282,738	$357	B	Pacific Urban	Fairfield Residential
Marina Crossing	Petaluma	90	835	$42,000,000	$466,667	$467	A	Sonoma State University	Marina Office Park Associates, Basin Street Properties
Parkwood	Fairfield	107	710	$24,180,000	$225,974	$332	C	Crown Capital	JCM Partners
Villa Medanos	Antioch	112	809	$22,000,000	$196,429	$243	B	Reliant Group	American Management Group
The Carlton	Berkeley	113	382	$21,750,000	$192,478	$504	C	Rev Projects	Prado Group
Amador Valley	Dublin	80	845	$21,100,000	$263,749	$351	C	Reliant Group	American Management Group
Lenzen Square Apartments	San Jose	88	560	$21,000,000	$238,636	$202	B	WNC & Associates	AOF Pacific, CORE Companies

Submarket Performance

San Francisco County: Vacancy 4.3%, Rent $3,481, Units Under Construction 7,061
Alameda County: Vacancy 4.0%, Rent $2,444, Units Under Construction 10,445
San Mateo County: Vacancy 4.3%, Rent $2,985, Units Under Construction 2,627
Santa Clara County: Vacancy 4.3%, Rent $2,705, Units Under Construction 11,986
Sonoma County: Vacancy 3.7%, Rent $1,715, Units Under Construction 667
Napa-Solano County: Vacancy 2.2%, Rent $1,579, Units Under Construction 520
Marin County: Vacancy 3.2%, Rent $2,567, Units Under Construction 0
Contra Costa County: Vacancy 2.6%, Rent $2,110, Units Under Construction 2,354

Future Outlook

Population growth is expected to strengthen through 2022, according to Moody's & U.S. Census Bureau.
New inventory is expected to increase throughout the year, with over 130 projects on course to deliver by year-end.
Federal Funds Target Rate is forecasted to rise, and conventional 30-year fixed rates are at 4.3%.

Conclusion

The Bay Area multifamily market in Q1 2019 showed resilience despite a slower sales volume compared to 2018. Rent growth, positive absorption, and low vacancy rates suggest continued demand. However, cap rates and interest rates remained below historical averages, indicating tight market conditions and potential challenges in the future. The East Bay and Santa Clara submarkets were the most active, while Sonoma County faced higher vacancy due to new supply not fully leasing.